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삼성경제연구소 한미 FTA 보고서 비판 3

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4. “한미 FTA 전략적 활용론 허와

 

삼성경제연구소의 보고서 집필자들이한미 FTA 전략적 활용이라는 소절에서 밝히고 있는 기대 효과는 크게 (1) “경쟁에 의한 구조조정 촉진, (2) 기업 규제 개선의 계기, (3) “투자 활성화의 계기 등이다. 이외에 이들은 (4)

한미 FTA 한국이 동아시아의 경제축으로 발전하는 계기 있을 것이며, 나아가 (5) “한반도 평화정착의 계기 있다고도 말하고 있다.

 

외환위기 이후의 비대칭적 구조조정

이들은 우선외환위기 이후 대기업은 자산매각, 사업구조 조정 등을 통해 어느 정도 구조조정이 이루어진 상태 반면, “중소기업은 구조조정 부진, 경쟁력 저하 등으로 인해 영업이익률이 하락세를 지속하고 있다고 진단한다.

그러나 이들이 이런 말을 하기 위해서는 무엇보다도 먼저 외환위기 이후 한국의 재벌기업 집단이 구체적으로 어떻게 구조조정을 해왔는지를 명확하게 제시해야 한다. 그렇지 않다면 그들이 말하는 대기업 집단의 구조조정 노력이란 기껏해야 대기업의 불법적인 자산 소유권 상속과 같은 족벌체제 유지 노력에 불과할 것이다. 외환위기 이후 대기업은 자산매각, 사업구조 조정을 통해 기업 구조를 조정했다고? 외환위기 이후 중소기업은 자산매각이 아니라 파산 신청을 통해, 사업구조 조정이 아니라 기업 퇴출을 통해, 그리고 수많은 자살과 불가피한 파산 이민을 통해, 재벌체제가 야기한 외환위기를 감당했어야 했다. 도대체 이상의 어떠한 구조조정이 필요하다는 말인가.

더불어, “중소기업이 낮은 경쟁력에도 불구하고 구조조정이 지연되는 결정적인 이유는, 이들이 오도하는 것과는 달리, 정부의 지원이구조조정 압력을 완화했기 때문이 아니라, 일본과 더불어 세계에서 유례를 찾아볼 없을 정도로 강력하게 수직적으로 통합된 중소기업과 재벌기업간의 종속관계 때문이다. 서유럽 각국에서는 이미 상식처럼 굳어진 중소기업과 대기업의 고유한 업종 전문화 제도도 한국에서는 이미 사문화된 오래이고, 그나마 남아 있던 출자총액제한제도도 최근 경영상의 어려움을 핑계로 재벌 집단의 강력한 로비에 밀려 폐지되고 말았다. 일제 식민지 시대에서나 찾아볼 있었던 어음과 하도급 지급의 형태로 중소기업의 경영과 노동구조를 강압적으로 지배했던 것이 바로 한국의 재벌기업 집단의 행태이다. 바로 이것이야말로 중소기업이 성장하지 못하는 결정적인 이유인 것이다.

나아가 이들은금융부문의 비효율성 중소기업 구조조정을 지연시킨 요인 가운데 하나라고 주장하고 있다. “대기업 대출 수요가 감소하자 한동안 가계 대출을 확대하는 것으로 대응했던 은행들이 가계 대출 부실 우려가 커지자 최근 다시 중소기업 대출을 확대했고, 이는 결국 부실 중소기업들을 존속시키는 결과를 초래했다는 것이다. 그러나 이러한 주장은 한국 민간 은행의 대출 행태의 변화가 근본적으로는 급속한 금융시장 개방과 이에 따른 금융의 선순환 효과 (비금융 기업의 장기 투자를 지원하고, 이를 통해 기업 경영 구조를 감시하고 개선하는 역할) 파괴에서 기인한다는 근본적인 사실을 오도하는 것이다.

금융부문 계열사의 막대한 유동자산 (삼성생명과 삼성카드) 이에 대한 차용 능력(순환형 출자) 이용해 역대 한국 정부를 상대로 갖은 협박을 해가며 거칠 없이 사업 영역을 확장해왔던 한국의 삼성 재벌체제, 바로 그것이 한국의 후진적인 금융 시스템을 지속시킨 근본적인 원인이며, 바로 그것이 외환위기 이후 급격하게우량 중소기업이나 창업 기업에 대한 금융 지원 위축되게 만든 근본 원인이다.

이들은한미 FTA [중소기업 부문의] 경쟁을 촉진하기 위한 외부적 지렛대 있을 것이라고 말한다. 거듭 말하건대, 재벌과 중소기업간의 지금까지와 같은 수직적 통합관계와 후진적인 지급결제 행위가 지속되는 , 또한 정부가 중소기업들이 고유한 사업영역 안에서 마음껏 혁신과 창의를 주도할 있도록 금융과 조세 행정상의 지원을 강력하게 지속적으로 추진하지 않는 , 한국의 민간 은행이 단기 수익성만을 쫓는 것이 아니라 장기 투자와 기술 개발을 위한 정책 금융의 비중을 전체 포트폴리오 안에서 일정 부분 담당하도록 제도적으로 유인되지 않는 , 한국의 중소기업은 결코 혁신 주도적 기업으로 거듭나지 못할 것이다.

다시 말해, 보고서의 작성자들이 외면 또는 책임을 전가하려고 하는 중소기업 부문의 지체된 생산성과 낮은 기술수준의 문제는 바로 삼성을 핵심으로 하는 한국의 재벌체제를 근본적으로 바꿀 때에만 비로소 논의의 실마리를 찾게 것이다. 그렇지 않은 가운데 추진되는 한미 FTA 경쟁촉진을 위한 외부적 지렛대 아니라 그나마 위태롭게 명맥을 유지하고 있는 혁신적 우량 중소기업의 씨를 말리는 최악의 영향을 중장기적으로 끼칠 것이고, 그렇지 않아도 과도하게 종속된 중소기업-대기업 간의 수직적 분업구조를 더욱 심화시킬 것이다.

 

어떤 규제를 어떻게 완화하자는 말인가

이들이 번째로 강조하는 것은 한미 FTA 기업 규제 개선의 계기가 된다는 점이다. “기업활동에 대한 규제완화에도 불구하고 아직 만족할만한 수준 아니라면서 말이다. 안타깝게도 기업 규제 완화라는 말처럼 젊은이의 인생을 줄기차게 따라다니는 지겨운 말도 없을 것이다.

1980 년대 초반부터 지금까지 한국의 역대 정권 가운데 기업에 대한규제완화하지 않은 정부가 없었다. 그럼에도 불구하고 완화하거나 폐지되어야 규제가 여전히 남아 있다는 말인가? “기업이 체감하는 규제의 정도는 크게 개선되지 않았다는 것이 일반적인 평가란다. 도대체 어떤 규제를 어떻게 완화하거나 폐지해야 한다는 말인가? 이미 폐지된 출자총액제한제도 같은 것을 말하는가? 기업 경영에 대한 사외이사를 통한 감사제도와 소액주주 활동(감사 소송 청구권의 문턱을 낮추는 등을 포함한) 등에 대한 규정을 말하는 것인가?

이러한규제들은 지금보다 더욱 강화되어야 한다. 만약 이와 같은규제 때문에투자위축되는 기업 조직이 있고, 이와 같은규제 핑계 삼아 소비자 비용 증가시키는 기업 조직이 있다면, 기업들이야말로외환위기 이후 지속된 기업 구조조정 노력게을리한 집단이고, 따라서 당연히기업 구조조정 압력 통해시장에서퇴출되어야 집단이다. 바로 삼성과 같은 재벌 기업 말이다.

어떤 측면에서 한미 FTA 국내 기업에 대한 규제를 전면적으로 재검토하는 계기가 있다는 보고서 작성자들의 주장은 대단히 현실적인 지적이다. 그러나 바로 그러한 이유 때문에라도 한미 FTA 결코 국회에서 비준되어서는 된다. 한미 FTA 기회로 삼아, 삼성을 포함한 한국의 독점 재벌들은 한국 정부를 상대로 갖은 회유와 협박을 통한 뒷거래를 성사시키려고 것이다.

그렇지 않아도 국민 경제 전체의 역동성과 활력을 빼앗아 가는 주범 가운데 하나인 독점 재벌 체제가 한미 FTA 계기로 더욱 고착될 것이다. 이것은 국제노동기구 (ILO) 제안하는 고용 임금과 관련된 글로벌 스탠더드에 걸맞는 수준으로 국내의 취약한 노동시장 구조(연령, 성별, 지역, 학력 등에 따른 차별적 고용 임금 지급 관행, 비정규직과 임시 노동자 비중의 폭증, 사실상의 노동조합 활동에 대한 금지 ) 조금이라도 개선하거나, 서유럽 수준까지는 아니더라도 최소한 OECD 최하위라는 불명예에서 벗어나 사회복지 시스템을 확충하려는 일체의 노력에 중대한 걸림돌로 작용할 것이다.

 

어떤 투자가 어떻게 활성화되는가

마지막으로 보고서 작성자들이 거론하는 한미 FTA 기대효과 – “투자 활성화의 계기라는 주장을 살펴보자. 외환위기 이후 저투자-저성장 국면에 진입했다는 이들의 주장은 사실이다. 기업의 투자 부진이 경제성장률의 하락과 고용 구조의 악화를 가져온다는 주장도 사실이다.

그러나 문제는한미 FTA 저투자-저성장의 악순환 고리를 끊을 있는 계기 되지 못한다는 있다. “시장이 확대됨에 따라 투자 위험이 감소하여 국내 기업의 투자를 촉진 있다는 주장도 사실이 아니다. 아직까지 전문이 공개되지 않는 한미 FTA 협정문 가운데 어떠한 것도시장의 확대 자동적으로 보장해주는 문구는 없다. 평균 $120~30 정도의 가격 하락 때문에 닛산과 토요다를 제치고 현대 소나타나 기아 엘란트라를 구입할 미국 소비자는 존재하지 않는다.

설사 조금이라도 시장이 확대되는 효과가 있다고 가정한다고 해도, 한미 FTA 금융관련, 투자관련, 노동 환경관련 조항들은기업의 투자 비용 또는투자 위험 증가시킬 것이다. “대규모 시장에 대한 차별적 접근성 확보되지 않는다는 것은 이미 미국이 수많은 라틴 아메리카 각국들과 지역간 양자간 협정을 맺었다는 점을 고려하면 금방 있는 사실이다. 설사 이들 나라들의 주력 수출 품목이 한국의 재벌들이 수출하는 상품과 비경쟁적 관계에 놓여 있다는 점을 십분 고려한다고 해도 대규모 시장에 대한 차별적 접근성이 확보된다고 말할 있는 근거는 없다.

이들은 한미 FTA 통해서 외국인 직접투자(FDI) 증가할 전망이라고 주장한다. FDI 금융시장을 통한 포트폴리오 투자(Portfolio investment)와는 달리 고정자산을 실제로 투자하여 현지에서 고용을 창출하기 때문에 현지 국민경제의 경제성장에 기여할 있다고도 한다.

그러나 우선 경제학적으로 FDI 포트폴리오를 명확하게 구별할 있는 기준점이 없다. 번째로 설사 외국기업이 실물 고정자산을 투자한다고 하더라도, 이것이 실제로 현지 경제가 요구하는 만큼 고용을 창출하리라는 보장이 없다. 번째로, 설사 외국기업이 한국에 진출한다고 하더라도, 그것이 기술 이전과 임금, 조세 환경관련 규정 그리고 국내 은행과 맺는 제도적 관계 유형이 어떠한 것인가에 따라 지속적으로 국민 경제에 이바지할 있을런지 아니면 론스타의 경우처럼 급속히 금융화되어 투기적 행위 패턴을 보일 지가 결정된다는 점도 분명히 언급할 필요가 있다.

명백한 차이에 관해서는 중국 정부가 마련한 현지 부품 조달 비율, 기술 이전 요건, 환경, 고용 임금과 관련된 일련의 법적 제도적 지침을 따르면서 장기적 이윤 기회를 추구하며 기업활동을 벌이는 FDI , 아무런 세제와 고용상의 규제 없이 높은 이자율과 급격한 환율 변동에 따르는 시세 차액을 거두는 일에만 골몰하는 아르헨티나와 브라질에 투자된 FDI 전혀 다른 행위패턴을 보여주고 있다는 사실을 고려하면 금방 확인되는 일이다.

그런데 한미 FTA 바로 이와 같은 기업경영과 금융, 외국 기업과 국내 은행, 기업 환경 전반을 둘러싼 제도적 환경(임금, 조세, 환경 ) 자국 국민경제의 이익을 극대화하려는 목적에서 추진되는 일체의 정부 차원의 조정 노력을 근본적으로 잠식하는 조항들을 내재하고 있다. 따라서 연구원들이 계산한대로 20.8% FDI 증가율 실제로 나타난다고 해도, FDI 결코 고용, 임금, 기술이전 등의 영역에서 한국 경제에 일말의 도움이라도 있는 FDI 아닐 것이다.

 

 

5. 글을 맺으며

 

외환위기 이후, 특히 김대중 정부 말기부터 기업들의 R&D 투자는 말할 것도 없고 전반적인 설비투자 비율도 급속하게 줄어들고 있다. 국내적으로는 한국의 대통령 선거가 있었고, 국제적으로도 조류독감과 광우병 파동 그리고 미국의 아프가니스탄과 이라크 침공 기업 경영에 영향을 미치는 일련의 외부적 변수들이 있었다.

그러나 모든 변수들을 주어진 조건으로 삼을 , 한국 기업들의 투자 감소는 외환위기 전후 급속하게 개방된 자본시장과 금융시장의 불안정성, 신용카드 대란으로 나타난 급속한 신용 거품의 축소와 이에 따른 소비 위축 등의 종합적인 결과라고 있다.

이와 같은 급격한 자본 금융시장 개방에 따른 불안정성을 정부가 규제와 감시를 통해 줄이지 않는다면, 정부가 주도적으로 확대된 사회복지 정책 추진을 통해 국내 소비자들의 안정된 소득 수준을 보장하지 않는다면, “중소기업의 영업이익률 결코 향상 되지 않을 것이며, 따라서 활성화된 설비 투자도 나타나지 않을 것이다. 이러한 가운데 맹목적으로 추진되는 한미 FTA 삼성을 포함한 일부 독점재벌들을 제외한 산업분야의 성장과 발전에 치명적인 타격을 가할 것이다.

글을 삼성경제연구소의 박현수, 김화년, 박번순, 민승규 연구원과 글을 감수했다는 김경원 연구위원 등은 그들이 진정으로 완전경쟁을 통한 소비자 후생의 증가라는 공식을 믿고 있다면, 삼성을 포함한 소수의 재벌들과 외환위기 이후 급속하게 부를 축적해나간 금융자산가들의 물질적 이익만을 대변하는 한미 FTA 그들이 믿고 있는 경제학적 상식과도 거리가 멀다는 것을 솔직하게 인정할 필요가 있다.

더불어 소수 독점재벌과 금리생활자들의 이익을 마치 한국민 전체의 이익인 포장하려는 절대로 성공할 없는 시도를 중단하고, 현재 상황에서 한미 FTA 비준 절차가 강행될 경우 잠재적으로 야기할 수많은 문제점들을 지적하고 비판하는 일에 앞장서야 것이다.

진보블로그 공감 버튼트위터로 리트윗하기페이스북에 공유하기딜리셔스에 북마크
2007/05/31 13:45 2007/05/31 13:45

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프레시안 한미 FTA 국회 비준 반대 서명운동 기사

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프레시안 한미 FTA 국회 비준 반대 서명 운동 기사 (5월 7일자)

9월 정기국회에서 한미 FTA에 대한 비준동의 여부가 표결에 부쳐질 가능성이 높은 가운데, 미국을 포함한 영미권 국가들에서 수학하고 있는 20개국의 경제학도들이 한미 FTA 비준동의에 반대하는 내용의 편지를 노무현 대통령과 국회의원들에게 보낸 것으로 7일 밝혀졌다.
  
  이들은 지난 5일 노 대통령과 국회의원들에게 보낸 공개편지에서 "한미 FTA는 한미 양국의 중소기업과 노동자 농민들의 이해를 희생시킬 뿐만 아니라 개발도상국들의 공동의 이익을 희생시키는 불공정한 양자간 무역협정 및 투자협정을 촉발할 위험을 안고 있다"면서 "한미 FTA에 대한 비준동의에 반대한다"고 주장했다.
  
  이는 한미 FTA가 한미 양국의 일부 계층에만 부정적인 영향을 미치는 데 그치는 것이 아니라 전세계 국가들을 불공정한 무역체제 속으로 밀어넣는 기폭제 역할을 할 수도 있다는 경고이다. 많은 국내외 학자들도 한미 FTA는 세계 무역 체제의 방향을 '다자주의'에서 '양자주의'로 전환시킨, 전세계 경제사의 획을 그은 사건이라고 평가하고 있다.
  
  미국 뉴욕 뉴스쿨대학의 경제학 박사과정에 재학 중인 신희영 씨는 7일 이 공개편지를 보내게 된 배경으로 "지난 4월 14일~30일 미국, 영국, 캐나다 등에서 경제학과 기타 사회과학 분야에서 공부하고 있는 유학생들을 중심으로 한미 FTA의 국회 비준에 반대하는 서명운동을 전개했다"며 "그 서명운동에 동참한 사람들이 공개편지를 통해 목소리를 낸 것"이라고 설명했다.
  
  이들은 한미 FTA의 당사국인 한국과 미국뿐 아니라 독일, 프랑스, 이탈리아, 인도, 싱가포르, 말레이시아, 브라질, 콜롬비아, 페루 등 20개 국가에서 온 73명의 석·박사 과정 학생들로 구성돼 있다. 대부분 경제학이나 경제학과 인접한 학문을 전공하고 있다.
  
  다음은 이들이 지난 5일 노무현 대통령과 국회의원들 앞으로 보낸 공개편지의 요약본이다.
  
  
한미 자유무역협정(FTA) 비준 반대를 위한 공개 편지
  
  한국의 노무현 대통령과 국회의원 여러분께,
  
  우리는 최근 협상 타결이 선언된 한미 자유무역협정(FTA)이 야기할 수많은 문제점들에 대한 우려를 표명하기 위해서 이 글을 씁니다. 우리는 현재 한국과 미국, 영국 그리고 캐나다 등지에서 경제학과 인접 사회과학 분야를 전공하는 대학원생들입니다.
  
  우리는 한미 FTA가 한미 양국의 중소기업과 그 기업에 고용된 노동자들뿐만 아니라 농어민들의 경제적 안정성에 심각한 악영향을 미칠 것이라고 우려하고 있습니다. 또한 한미 FTA는 한국 정부의 독립적인 거시경제적 정책 수행 및 집행 능력을 현저하게 제약함으로써, 미국 경제에 대한 종속성을 더욱 강화시킬 것이라고 우려하고 있습니다. 더 나아가 우리는 그것이 '국제적으로 불공정한 무역 체제 및 금융 체제 (unjust and unequal trade and financial system)'를 확대·온존하는 효과를 갖게 될지도 모른다는 우려를 하고 있습니다.
  
  첫째, 한미 FTA뿐만 아니라 지난 해 콜롬비아-미국, 페루-미국, 파나마-미국 간의 FTA 협정문에 공통으로 명시돼 있는 '투자자-국가 소송제(ISD, Investor-State Dispute) 조항은 다국적 기업들과 금융 투자자들이, 해당 정부의 특정한 정책 때문에 자신들의 잠재적 이윤이 줄어들었다고 판단할 때마다, 언제든지 국가를 상대로 소송을 걸 수 있는 배타적 권한을 부여하고 있습니다. 이 투자자-국가 소송제도가 지금까지 국제적 투기 자본가들과 다국적 기업들에 의해서 빈번하게 악용돼 왔다는 점을 고려할 때, 이것은 다양한 '시장 실패'를 보완하기 위해 반드시 필요한 정부의 사회 정책을 근본적으로 잠식할 위험이 큽니다.
  
  둘째, 미국 행정부 산하의 무역대표부(USTR)가 지금까지 체결한 모든 양자간·지역간 FTA 협정문에 공통적으로 포함된 "금융 서비스" 항목은 협정 체결국 내 제조업 부문의 성장에 필요한 안정적인 사회경제적 금융적 토대를 궁극적으로 부식시킬 수 있는 위험한 조항들을 담고 있습니다. 만약 이런 조항들이 아무런 여과 없이 그대로 관철된다면, 그것은 중소 규모 제조업 부문의 '탈산업화 (deindustrialization)'를 가속화시킬 것이고, 경제 전반적으로는 소수의 금융자산가들의 이익만을 보장하는 '금융부유화'(financialization) 과정을 초래해, 그렇지 않아도 이미 심각한 문제로 부각되고 있는 '양극화' 문제를 더욱 악화시킬 것입니다.
  
  마지막으로, 우리는 한미 간의 양자간 FTA가 다른 개발도상국가들에게 또 다른 형태의 악영향을 끼치게 될지도 모른다는 우려를 갖고 있습니다. 최근 한국과 미국이 타결한 FTA는 현존하는 국제적 불공정 무역 및 투자 체계에 내재한 수많은 문제점들과 의제들을 다루는 데 실패했을 뿐만 아니라 현재 우리들 모국이 미국과 개별적으로 진행하고 있는 양자간·지역간 협상 및 비준에도 악영향을 미치고 있습니다.
  
  이러한 측면에서 우리는 한국의 대통령과 국회의원 여러분께 다음과 같은 점을 강력하게 요청합니다.
  
  첫째, 한국 정부는 한국뿐만 아니라 다른 개발도상국가들에게도 악영향을 미칠 FTA 협정문 내의 독소조항들을 제거하고 일체의 FTA 추진을 중단해 주시기 바랍니다.
  
  둘째, 우리는 한국 정부가 아시아·태평양 지역과 다른 지역 안의 개발도상국가들 사이의 경제협력을 촉진하고 상호 간의 이익을 증진시키는 다른 방안을 진지하게 모색할 것을 촉구합니다.
  
  마지막으로, 우리는 한국 정부와 시민단체가 개발도상국가들의 지속적인 경제 성장에 기여하는 중요한 역할을 해주기를 바랍니다.
  
  2007년 5월 5일
  한국, 미국, 영국 그리고 캐나다에서 사회과학 분야를 전공하는 학생들 일동

  프레시안 노주희/기자

진보블로그 공감 버튼트위터로 리트윗하기페이스북에 공유하기딜리셔스에 북마크
2007/05/31 13:07 2007/05/31 13:07

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Measuring the Cost of Policy Space

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이 글의 원문은 지난달 20일 'IRC Americas Program'의 인터넷 홈페이지에 게재됐다. <편집자>
  
  1. 들어가며
  
  개발도상국들이 자국의 경제발전을 촉진하기 위해 독자적인 정책 공간(policy space)을 확보해야 한다는 주장은 단순히 이론적인 주장일 뿐만 아니라 경험적인 연구 성과에 바탕을 두고 있다. 우선, 국제경제에서, 특히 개발도상국의 경제 속에 항상 나타나는 시장실패(market failures)의 문제는 정부가 자국의 경제성장을 촉진하기 위해 적극적인 역할을 수행해야 한다는 견해를 정당화해 주는 근거로 사용돼 왔다. 또한 경험적인 측면에서도, 대만과 한국, 그리고 최근의 중국과 같은 동아시아 국가들의 급속한 경제성장은 정부의 국가 지원적(state-facilitated) 경제발전 정책이 성공적일 수 있다는 주장의 주된 근거로 활용되고 있다.
  
  그러나 다른 한편 [대다수 신고전파] 경제학자들은 시장실패를 교정한다는 미명 하에 정부가 특정한 정책을 취하는 나라가 국제무역에 관여하면, 그렇지 않았더라면 나타나게 될 각종 지표들을 국제 무역에 관여하는 모든 나라들에서 왜곡시킬 것이라고 주장해 왔다.
  
  오늘날 국제 경제 체제에서 개발도상국들이 직면한 공통의 시장실패로는 다음과 같은 것이 있다. 첫째, 정보의 외부성(Information externalities)이 존재하는데, 이것은 민간 경제주체가 생산적인 투자기회에 대한 정보를 충분히 갖지 못하는 경우에 생겨난다. 둘째로, 조정의 외부성(Coordination externalities)은 [설사 충분한 투자정보를 가지고 있다고 하더라도] 민간기업이 투자를 통해 실제적인 이윤을 창출할 수 있는 산업적 조건들이 충분하게 형성돼 있지 않을 경우에 생겨나는 문제이다. 셋째로, 불완전 경쟁(Imperfect competition)은 고도로 집중된 산업에서 새로운 기업의 진입과 기술 발전이 지체되는 경우에 생겨나는 문제이다. 마지막으로, 환경의 외부성(Environmental externalities)은 특정한 재화의 생산과 소비에 수반되는 환경 비용이 가격체계에 반영되지 않을 경우에 생겨나는 것으로서, 이는 특정한 재화와 서비스가 적절하게 생산·소비되는 것을 가로막는다.
  
  아래의 표 1은 개발도상국들이 이같은 시장실패를 교정하기 위해 사용할 수 있는 다양한 정책 수단들을 보여주고 있다. 이와. 동시에 이 표는 이런 정책 수단들이 어느 정도까지 현행 국제무역기구 체제 하에서 허용되고 있는지를 나타내고 있다. 특히, 몇 가지 규정들은 도하라운드 하에서 조만간 폐지될 것으로 예상되는 항목을 나타내고 있다.
  


  

우리는 <국제투자와 무역(Journal of World Investment and Trade)>에 발표된 '국제무역기구 체제 하에서 축소된 정책 공간(The Shrinking of Development Space)'라는 글에서 이런 조항들과 관련된 국제무역기구 내의 분쟁 사례들을 분석한 바 있다. 그 글의 목적은 국제무역기구(WTO) 체제의 조항들이 얼마만큼 개발도상국들이 취할 독자적 발전 전략들을 제한하는가를 이론적인 차원에서 조망하는 것뿐만 아니라 실제로 해당 분쟁 사례들이 어느 정도까지 '분쟁 해결 (dispute settlement)'의 이름으로 구속력을 지니면서 개발도상국들의 정책 공간을 위축시켜 왔는가를 분석하는 데 있었다. 이를 위해 우리는 1995년부터 2005년까지 국제무역기구를 통해 제소된 분쟁 사례들을 분석했고, 위 도표에서 예시된 몇 가지 조항들이 문제가 된 사례들을 선별한 후 실제로 어떻게 해당 분쟁이 조정됐는가를 살펴봤다.
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  이 과정에서 크게 두 가지의 주목할 만한 결과가 나타났다. 첫 번째는 WTO 규정들을 위반했다는 이유로 제소된 여러 가지 분쟁 사례들을 분석해 본 결과 개발도상국들은 물론 선진국들도 국내 산업보호를 위해 해당 정책들을 암암리에 시행하고 있다는 점이다. 두 번째로, 분쟁 해결 메커니즘(DSM, Dispute Settlement Mechanism)의 핵심은 개발도상국들이 취하고 있는 산업정책의 내용이 WTO 규정을 위반하는지를 판결하는 데 초점이 맞춰져 있다는 점이다. 한 나라가 다른 국제무역기구 체제 하에서 금지된 산업정책을 시행하고 있다는 이유로 다른 나라를 제소한 후 분쟁 조정 메커니즘을 통해 다루어진 사례의 25% 이상이 바로 이 산업 정책들에 놓여져 있었다. 이는 전체 90개의 사례 가운데 25% 이상이 개발도상국들이 국내 산업 증진을 위해 사용하고 있는 다양한 정책들을 제거하는 데 초점을 맞추고 있다는 것을 의미한다. 아래의 도표는 이러한 분쟁 사례들이 각 항목별로 어떻게 개발도상국들에 영향을 미쳤는지를 분석한 것이다.
  


  

2. 국제무역기구 체제는 개발도상국들에 무엇인가 - 사소한 이익을 대가로 한 장기적인 손해
  
  여러 가지 측면에서 이같은 연구 결과는 전혀 놀라운 것이 아니다. 왜냐면 WTO 체제의 게임 규칙은 지금까지 [특히 인권이나 국제 형사법과 관련된 국제적 규범에 비해] 상대적으로 엄격하게 적용되고 있기 때문이다. 그러나 이 연구가 상대적으로 과소평가하고 있는 점은 일단 개발도상국들이 자국의 경제발전을 위해 지금까지 성공적으로 활용해왔던 다양한 정책 수단들을 국제무역기구 체제 하의 협상 과정에서 상실할 경우, 나중에라도 다시 그와 같은 정책 수단들을 확보하는 것이 사실상 불가능하다는 데 있다.
  
  이같은 국제무역기구 체제 하의 협상이 야기한 장기적인 '비용'은 개발도상국들이 국제무역기구에 가입하는 즉시 잃게 될, 관세 부과에 따른 조세 수입 손실분과 다양한 무역 및 투자 자유화 조치가 가져다 줄 것이라고 선전되는 잠재적인 이익에 대한 계산을 통해 분석돼야 한다.
  
  아래의 표3은 도하라운드를 통해 개발도상국들이 얻게 될 잠재적인 이익과 관세 수입 손실분을 예측·비교한 것이다. 세계은행(World Bank)과 다른 국제무역 기구들의 '무역 자유화 모델들'은 개발도상국들의 재정수지가 항상 균형 상태에 놓여 있다는 가정에 근거를 두고 있다. 다시 말해, 관세 부과에 따른 조세 수입 손실분이 개발도상국들이 국내 소비자들에게 부과하게 될 일괄 소비세(lump-sum taxes)를 통해 정확히 충당돼, 무역 자유화 이후에도 정부 재정이 균형 상태로 유지될 것이라고 가정하고 있다는 말이다.
  
  그러나 많은 개발도상국들에서 그와 같은 조세 부과는 현실적으로 불가능하며, 강력한 조세 저항에 직면하는 경우가 허다하다. 유엔무역개발회의(UNCTAD)는 도하라운드 하에서 실제로 논의되고 있는 현실적인 협상 내용에 근거해 개발도상국들이 향후 상실하게 될 관세 수입분을 예측한 바 있다. 아래의 표 3은 각 지역과 나라별로 나타나게 될 UNCTAD의 관세수입 손실 예측분과 세계은행이 계산한 무역 자유화에 따른 이익 예측분을 비교한 것이다.
  


  이 표의 첫 번째 칼럼은 세계은행이 도하라운드가 개발도상국들에 가져다 줄 것이라고 예측한 기대이익을 보여주고 있다. 도하라운드 체제 하에서 2015년까지 계산된 기대 이익 예측분은 총 960억 달러이다. 그러나 세계은행의 계산에서조차 이 총 이익 예측분 가운데 고작 160억 달러만이 전체 개발도상국들에게 돌아간다. 개발도상국들은 기껏해야 0.16%의 연간 국내총생산(GDP) 증가라는 기대 이익치를 얻을 수 있을 뿐이다. 이것을 개인 소득으로 환산할 경우 우리는 개발도상국에 살고 있는 사람들이 기껏해야 연간 3.13 달러나 하루 1~2원 정도의 이익을 얻는다 (또는 보다 정확히 말하자면 '이익을 얻을 가능성이 높다')는 결론에 도달한다.
  
  비록 국제무역기구 체제 하의 협상 과정에서 대부분의 논의가 농업 부문에 초점을 맞추고 있지만, 개발도상국들이 자국의 농업 부문을 '개혁'함으로써 얻게 될 잠재적인 이익이란 고작 국내총생산(GDP)의 0.1%에 불과한 90억 달러에 불과할 뿐이다. 설사 북반구의 나라들이 농업 보조금을 실제로 철폐한다고 하더라도, 개발도상국들 전체가 이러한 조치로부터 얻을 수 있는 기대이익은 겨우 10억 달러에 불과하다. 개발도상국들이 자국 내의 서비스 시장을 개방함으로써 얻게 될 기대이익이란 것도 고착 69억 달러에 불과하다는 점도 주목할 만하다.
  
  그러나 이 표에서 예시된 것처럼, 개발도상국들이 관세를 철폐할 경우 잃게 될 조세 수입은 잠재적인 기대 이익분과 비교할 때 대단히 크다. 개발도상국들이 '비(非)농업 시장접근', 즉 제조업 상품 분야의 자유무역에 관한 협상 때문에 잃게 될 전체 관세 수입 손실분은 자그마치 634억 달러이다. 이는 세계은행이 제시한 기대 이익분의 네 배에 달하는 수치다.
  
  대부분의 개발도상국에서 관세를 철폐하는 것은 각국이 세계경제에 전략적으로 통합하는 데 필요로 하는 새로운 산업 영역 개척 능력을 제한할 뿐만 아니라, 국내 산업의 진흥과 빈곤층 지원을 위한 사회정책적 프로그램들을 수행하는 데 결정적으로 필요한 사회적 재원을 근본적으로 제거하는 것이기도 하다. 대부분의 개발도상국들은 전체 조세 수입의 4분의 1 이상을 관세 수입에 의존하고 있다. 경제구조가 다변화돼 있지 않은 소규모 개방 국가들의 경우 관세 수입은 정부 예산의 핵심적인 부분을 차지하고 있기도 하다.
  
  실제로 '남반구 연구센터(South Center)'의 실증 조사에 따르면, 도미니카 공화국, 기니, 마다가스카르, 시에라 레온, 스와질랜드 그리고 우간다의 경우 관세 수입이 전체 조세 수입의 40% 이상에 달하고 있다. 이 때문에 미국 뉴욕 소재 콜롬비아 대학의 바그와티(Jagdish Bhagwati) 교수는 <포린 어페어(Foreign Affairs)> 최근호에 실은 글에서 "만약 사회 지출을 위한 정부 수입의 대부분을 관세를 통해 충당하는 가난한 나라들이 관세를 철폐함으로써 해당 정부 수입분을 잃게 될 위험에 처하게 된다면, 세계은행과 같은 국제 기관들은 이 나라들이 관세 수입 손실분을 다른 조세 항목을 통해 충당할 수 있도록 국내 조세 체계를 고칠 때까지 그 부족분을 채워 줘야 한다"고 지적한 바 있다.
  
  비록 경제학자들이 소비세를 통한 조세 수입이 국내 복지를 증진시키는 데 있어서 유일하게 효과적인 방책이라고 주장해 온 것이 사실이라고 해도, 수많은 경제학자들은 관세 수입이, 효과적으로 조세를 부과할 수 없는 비공식 부문의 경제 활동이 압도적으로 커다란 위치를 점하고 있는 수많은 개발도상국들이 선호할만한 수입원이라는 것을 인정해 왔다.
  
  위의 표에서 설사 많은 개발도상국들이 얻게 될 순이익에 대한 기대치가 긍정적으로 나왔다고 하더라도(이 수치는 실제적인 관세 수입 손실분을 고려하지 않고 계산된 것이다), 그와 같은 기대 익은 지식 기반 자원의 발전을 통해 얻어지는 이익이 아니라 기초 농산품과 낮은 기술 수준으로 생산된 제조업 부문의 상품 생산을 통해서 얻어지는 기대이익에 불과하다. 이는 개발도상국에서 절실히 필요로 하는 제조업 산업 부문의 다변화와 혁신 과정에 역행하는 것이기도 하다.
  
  이와 관련해, 최근 원자재의 국제가격이 일시적으로나마 오르고 있는 추세에 있는 것은 사실이다. 그러나 장기적인 국제가격의 추세는 결코 개발도상국들에 이롭지 않을 것이다. 실제로 유엔(UN) 산하 식량농업기구(FAO)에 따르면, 에너지를 제외한 원자재의 가격은 지난 1980~2005년 사이 30% 가량이나 하락했다. 게다가 교역조건(개발도상국들이 판매한 농업 생산물의 평균가격과 선진 산업 국가들이 구입한 제조업 상품들의 평균가격의 비율)은 지난 1961~2001년 사이 거의 70% 가량 하락했다.
  
  만약 원자재 가격이 다시 하락한다면, 개발도상국들에는 교역조건의 악화 때문에 발생할 경제적 어려움을 만회할 만한 그 어떠한 산업도 더 이상 남아 있지 않게 될 것이다. 예컨대, 브라질과 아르헨티나와 같은 라틴아메리카의 개발도상국들은 교역조건이 악화될 경우 대부분의 모든 고용기회가 농업 부문이나 섬유 및 의류 산업으로 국한될 것이라고 예측하고 있다. 자유 무역화에 의해 야기될 국내 경제의 구조적 변화는 이 나라들에서 기계류, 비철금속 제련, 전자 그리고 자동차 부품 관련 업종과 같은 제조업에 결정적인 타격을 가할 것이다. 이는 다시 도시 거주 인구의 대대적인 실업을 야기하고, 이와 동시에 농촌 지역에 고용 규모가 적은 비생산적인 부문을 기형적으로 팽창시키는 결과를 초래할 것이다.
  
  아시아 지역의 경우, 교역조건의 악화에 따른 이같은 구조조정은 상대적으로 선진적인 기술에 바탕을 두고 있던 제조업 분야에 있는 노동 인구가 의류 산업 영역으로 대거 빠져 나가는 결과를 초래할 것이라고 예측되고 있다. 이러한 예측은 구조조정이 국내 임금 수준과 기술 수준에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 고려하지 않은 것이다. 따라서 만약 우리가 이같은 자유 무역화의 촉진이 국내 경제 구조의 조정을 불가피하게 할뿐 아니라 이것이 실제로 임금과 기술의 발전 수준에 어떤 악영향을 미칠 것인가를 고려한다면, 더 나아가 이같은 구조조정 과정이 수반하는 '이행 비용'을 함께 고려한다면, 그 결과는 더욱 심각하게 나타날 것이다.
  


  3. 무엇을 어떻게 할 것인가
  
  지난 한해 동안에는, 미국 의회가 대통령에게 부여한 무역촉진권(TTPA)의 시한이 마감되는 2006년 6월 30일 이전까지 도하라운드 협상을 마쳐야 한다는 강박관념이 지배적이었다. 미국 헌법은 국제무역과 관련된 정책 결정 권한을 의회에 부여하고 있다. 그러나 무역촉진권은 대통령에게 무역 협상을 주도적으로 진행하고 그 결과를 의회에 제출하도록 하는 권한을 부여하고 있다. 대통령에게 부여된 이같은 강력한 권한에 따라 미국 의회는 단지 대통령이 제출한 무역 협정 내용을 승인하거나 반대할 수 있을 뿐이다. 지난 몇 십 년 동안 이 무역촉진권과 무역 협정 내용은 의회 내에서 강력한 반대와 논쟁의 대상이 돼 왔다. 이에 따라 설사 무역 협정안이 원안대로 통과될 때조차도 그것은 한두 표라는 근소한 차이로 –지난해 중미자유무역협정(CAFTA)의 경우, 간신히 1표 차이로- 통과되기도 했다.
  
  지난 2006년 의회 선거 결과에 따라 현재 민주당이 상하 양원에서 다수 의석을 점하게 됐다. 이에 따라 대통령에게 부여된 무역촉진권은, 무역협정의 발효에 따라 미국 내에서 실업을 당하게 될 노동자들을 어떻게 보상할 것인가, 그리고 개발도상국들 안에서 노동과 환경에 관한 조항을 어떻게 규정할 것인가에 관한 협의가 이루어지지 않는다면, 사실상 다시 연장되기 힘들 것이다. 그리고 어떻게 하면 가난한 나라들에 공정한 발전의 기회를 제공할 것인가에 관한 논의도, 비록 빈 말로 그칠 가능성이 높다고 하더라도, 의회 내에서 논의될 것이다.
  
  필자는 미국의 유권자들이 비단 이라크 전쟁에 대한 우려뿐만 아니라 최근에 진행된 일련의 무역 협정이 야기한 미국의 노동자들과 환경에 대한 위협 때문에 민주당을 여당으로 만들어 주었다고 생각한다. 만약 무역촉진권이 2007년에 다시 연장되지 못한다면, 미국 대통령 선거가 시행될2008년에는 이 권한이 연장될 가능성은 더더욱 없을 것이다.
  
  그러나 이처럼 향후 2년 간 대통령에게 무역촉진권을 부여하지 않는 것은 모두에게 결코 나쁜 일이 아니다. 선진 산업 국가들은 현재까지 진행돼 왔던 협상안이 자국에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지에 대해 진지하게 생각해 보아야 할 것이다. 그들은 지금까지 무역 자유화의 이익이 소수의 산업 부문에 집중되어 온 반면, 그 비용은 나라 전체에 부과되어 왔다는 것을 명확하게 인식해야 할 것이다. 개발도상국들도 현재의 무역협상 구조를 진지하게 고찰해볼 필요가 있다. 그리고 이 과정에서 어떻게 하면 자국의 경제 성장을 모든 무역협정에 우선하는 핵심적인 과제로 부각시킬 것인가를 심각하게 고민해야 한다.
  
  아래의 5가지 개혁 방안들은 발전지향적 무역체제를 수립하는 데 있어서 결정적으로 중요한 요소들이다.
  
  (1) 선진 산업 국가들은 현존하는 협정들을 준수해야 한다. 예를 들어, 미국과 유럽은 국제무역기구의 판결 내용–섬유 산업과 설탕 산업에 대한 자국 정부의 보조금 지급이 현존하는 국제 무역 규범을 위반하는 것이며, 이는 결과적으로 동종 상품들을 수출하는 개발도상국들의 생산자들에게 막대한 피해를 입히고 있다는 판결–을 준수해야 할 것이다. 이것은 서부 아프리카와 라틴 아메리카의 생산자들에게 큰 도움을 줄 것이며, 선진 산업 국가들도 기꺼이 국제무역기구의 규칙을 준수할 용의가 있다는 것을 개발도상국들에 전하는 효과를 가져올 것이다. 미국과 유럽의 선진 산업 국가들은 아직까지 국제무역기구의 판결 내용을 준수하지 않고 있고, 이에 따라 브라질은 지금까지 계속해서 보조금 지급에 따른 피해에 상응하는 보상책을 요구하고 있다. 이와 유사한 다른 소송 사례들도 현재 가시화되고 있다. 예컨대, 캐나다와 브라질 그리고 다른 몇몇 나라들은 미국의 자국 섬유 산업에 대한 보조금 지급 관행에 항의하는 소송을 고려하고 있는 것으로 알려져 있다.
  
  (2) 다음으로, 서구 국가들은 농장 경영에 이용되는 자원에 대해서는 불공정한 가격에 구입할 것을 요구하고, 최종 생산물을 판매하는 데 있어서는 막대한 이윤을 올리고 있는 다국적 기업의 활동을 규제하자는 아프리카 여러 나라들의 제안을 진지하게 받아들여야 한다. 아프리카 대륙의 여러 나라들은 이같은 제안을 국제무역기구의 각종 협상 테이블에 제출하기 위해서 엄청난 노력을 해오고 있다. 특히 아프리카 각국들은 자국이 생산하는 원자재 가격을 올리고 거대 외국 기업체들의 독점적 행위를 규제하는 방향으로 국제 공급관리체계(supply-management system)를 개선할 것을 요구해 왔다. 그러나 안타깝게도 이 모든 제안들은 지금까지 선진 산업 국가들에 의해서 철저히 무시돼 왔다.
  
  (3) 선진 산업 국가들의 협상 당사자들은 국제무역기구 하에서도 가난한 나라들의 이익을 보장하기 위해 오랫동안 '특별 최혜국 대우의 원리(principle of special and differentiated treatment)'가 존속돼 왔다는 사실을 명확하게 인식할 필요가 있다. 선진 산업 국가들은 가난한 나라들의 시민들이 보다 저렴한 비용으로 의약품을 구입할 수 있도록 이 나라들이 생산하는 의약품에 국제적 특허 관련 규정들 부과하는 것을 철회해야 한다. 더불어 선진 산업 국가들은 가난한 나라들이 지역경제 내에서 중요한 역할을 담당하는 옥수수와 쌀 그리고 밀 등에 대해서는 자유무역협정(FTA)의 대상으로 설정하지 않을 수 있도록 보장해야 한다.
  
  (4) 이와 더불어, 국제통화기금(IMF)이나 세계은행(World Bank)과 같은 국제 기관들은 이미 타결된 협정 내용이 개발도상국들에 부과할 구조조정 비용, 예컨대 관세 수입 충당, 직업 훈련 등에 따른 비용을 새로운 정책이 뿌리내릴 때까지 지원하는 역할을 담당해야 한다. 국제통화기금의 '무역 통합 메커니즘 (Trade Integration Mechanism)'과 관련된 조항들은 애초 바로 이와 같은 임무를 수행하도록 고안됐다. 그러나 이 조항들은 개발도상국의 입장에서는 아직까지 충분히 시행된 적이 없다. 또한 이 역할의 수행과 더불어 국제통화기금은 개발도상국들에게 추가적인 지원 조건(conditionality)을 요구하지 않는 방식으로 재편돼야 한다. 그러나 안타깝게도 현재 국제통화기금의 계획안에는 구조조정의 비용을 부담하는 것에 대한 그 어떠한 고려도 없으며, 심지어는 개발도상국들을 더욱 가혹한 구조 조정으로 내모는 조건으로 기금을 지원한다는 비판을 받고 있다.
  
  (5) 마지막으로, 선진 산업 국가들이 주도하는 지역간 또는 양자간 무역 협정은 근본적으로 중단되어야 한다. 지역간, 양자간 협정은 선진 산업 국가들과 발전도상국들 사이에 현실적으로 존재하는 비대칭적 협상력(asymmetric bargaining power)을 악용하는 협정이다. 이 과정에서 이 지역간, 양자간 협정들은 진정한 비교 우위(comparative advantage)를 지닌 나라들을 협상 대상에서 의도적으로 제외시키고, 개발도상국들이 자국의 발전을 위해 취할 수 있는 효과적인 정책 집행 능력을 근본적으로 박탈하고 있다.
  


  4. 글을 맺으며
  
  국제통화기금이나 세계은행과 같은 국제 기구들은 물론 선진 산업 국가들도 무역 자유화에 따라 불가피하게 생겨나는 피해자들을 지원하고 보상해야 할 권한과 의무를 지니고 있다는 점을 명확하게 인식해야 한다. 그리고 이를 위해 국제 기관과는 별도로 선진 산업 국가들 사이에서 국제적인 협력을 이끌어 내려고 노력해야 한다.
  
  가난한 나라들을 돕는 것은 단순한 자선 행위가 아니다. 그것은 상호 이익을 증진할 수 있는 유력한 방법이기 때문이다. 2005년 현재 미국 상품의 50% 이상이 캐나다와 일본 그리고 유럽 이외의 다른 지역 나라들로 수출되고 있다. 따라서 만약 개발도상국들이 더 성장한다면, 그것은 선진 산업 국가들이 자국 상품의 수출을 위한 더 많은 세계시장을 점유하게 된다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 만약 개발도상국들이 지금보다도 더 낮은 성장률을 보인다면, 그만큼 선진 자본주의 국가들도 덜 성장하게 된다는 것, 따라서 가난한 나라들의 성장이 선진 자본주의 나라들의 성장에도 이익이 된다는 것을 국제사회는 하루라도 빨리 인식해야 할 것이다.

진보블로그 공감 버튼트위터로 리트윗하기페이스북에 공유하기딜리셔스에 북마크
2007/05/31 13:02 2007/05/31 13:02

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Trade Promotion Authority

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http://www.thomaspalley.com/?p=79#more-79

Trade promotion authority (TPA) - formerly known as fast-track negotiating authority - is set to expire on June 30, 2007. As a result, the Bush Administration and business interests are now lobbying Congress for its renewal. However, there are strong reasons to not just let TPA temporarily lapse, but also to permanently bury it.

After the November 2006 elections giving Democrats control of Congress, renewal of TPA appeared unlikely owing to the high degree of distrust and animosity toward the Bush Administration. Now, with Democrats and the Administration agreeing to include formal language on labor and environmental standards in the Peru and Panama free trade agreements, some are arguing for extending this newfound cooperation to renewal of TPA. That would be a serious mistake.

Not only would TPA renewal betray voters who no longer support the Administration, it would also miss a major opportunity to begin correcting course on globalization. Behind today’s flawed globalization lies a profoundly flawed policy process, and TPA is at the heart of that process.

The constitution gives Congress the right to decide upon trade relations with other countries. TPA has Congress ceding part of those rights by giving the President power to negotiate trade agreements that Congress can approve or disapprove but cannot amend or filibuster.

Opponents of TPA renewal have focused on two arguments. One argument is that such ceding of constitutional power is inappropriate, and Congress should reclaim this power as part of restoring a more balanced relationship between the legislative and executive branches.

A second argument is that absence of TPA would make it more difficult to sign new “free trade” agreements. This is because absent an up or down vote, agreements would get bogged down in Congressional special interest horse-trading. This is probably true, but it also constitutes a purely tactical argument for opposing TPA rather than an argument of principle.

An alternative argument for burying TPA concerns its distorting effect on trade policy. Over the last two decades the power of corporations has increased dramatically while that of labor has fallen. That power shift is reflected in the increased numbers of Washington K Street lobbyists working on behalf of corporations, which has increased corporate influence over policy and legislation. TPA plays into and amplifies this power shift.

Trade deals are negotiated by the office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), and then sent to Congress for approval. This negotiating process is stacked in favor of business. First, corporations get front seats at the negotiating table through regular detailed consultations, ensuring their interests are fully represented. Second, the trade bureaucrats who do the negotiating are subject to corrupting influences that bias negotiations.

One problem is that negotiators’ metric of success too easily becomes the number of deals signed, rather than getting good deals done. A second problem is that, as with other branches of government such as the Pentagon, there is a revolving door between USTR and business. Thus, trade negotiators who do good work for business are rewarded with plum K Street lobbying jobs, and Washington’s trade scene is crammed with persons who have followed this route. Furthermore, these lobbyists then have insider access to their former colleagues, thereby amplifying corporations’ representation advantage. The net result is business interests almost always trump those of workers.

TPA reinforces this jaundiced structure by reducing Congressional over-sight of trade, thereby short-changing the electorate’s interest. Bad agreements pass because the political costs of voting them down on account of specific problems are perceived as too high. Moreover, TPA provides individual congressmen with political cover, enabling them to retain favor with corporate sponsors without having to explain to constituents their lack of action.

The bottom line is that the balance of power and process of trade negotiation already favors corporate interests over those of ordinary people. TPA aggravates this pattern, which speaks for burying it and letting TPA rest in peace.

Copyright Thomas I. Palley

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2007/05/31 04:44 2007/05/31 04:44

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NY Times Book Review Vol. 54 - Disposable American etc

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Review

The Specter Haunting Your Office By James Lardner

The Disposable American: Layoffs and Their Consequences by Louis Uchitelle

Vintage, 287 pp., $14.95 (paper)

The Great American Jobs Scam by Greg LeRoy

Berrett-Koehler, 290 pp., $24.95

The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism by John C. Bogle

Yale University Press,260 pp., $16.00 (paper)

1.

Donald Davis was not concerned about imports in the late 1960s, when he started out as CEO of the Stanley Works, the country's leading manufacturer of hand tools. By the early 1980s, the challenge of competing against inexpensive tools made in Taiwan, Korea, and China had swept most of Davis's other concerns aside. His first response was a plan to streamline management, reducing the company's white-collar ranks through attrition. An old-school CEO who had been with Stanley most of his adult life, Davis considered layoffs a last resort. But by the time he stepped down as CEO in 1987, hundreds of factory workers had lost their jobs on his orders.

His successor, Richard Ayers, had the advantage of knowing what he was in for. An industrial engineer by training, Ayers mapped out a long-term strategy that called for layoffs, plant closings, and outsourcing: sledgehammer and crowbar production was moved to Mexico; socket wrench production to Taiwan. But the company also invested in making its domestic operations more efficient, and Ayers took special care to preserve jobs and facilities in New Britain, Connecticut, where Stanley had been a major employer for more than a century. By the mid-1990s, revenues had stabilized, profits were up, and Ayers could reasonably tell himself that his "evolutionary" approach had worked.

Wall Street, however, was not impressed. Securities analysts, comparing the jobs eliminated by Ayers with the layoff numbers at other old-line companies—Scott Paper (11,000), Sears (50,000), General Motors (94,000)— suggested that Stanley's key problem might be leadership rather than imports. At age fifty-five, according to Louis Uchitelle's The Disposable American, Ayers concluded that he did "not have the stomach" for any more job-cutting.


 

When Ayers retired, Stanley's directors turned to an outsider. The new CEO, John Trani, approached the import question with a clear mind. In his seven years as CEO, he shifted virtually all tool production to East Asia and Mexico, closed forty-three of Stanley's remaining eighty-three plants, cut the payroll from 19,000 to 13,500, and reduced its presence in New Britain to, in Uchitelle's words, "a collection of mostly empty factory buildings and reproachful former workers."

Through the story of the three Stanley CEOs, Uchitelle traces a mental journey taken by a great many top managers over the past few decades, and it would be hard to find a better distillation of the new mindset than his brief account of an interview with Trani in November 2004 (just a few days before he, too, retired, with an $8 million bonus and a $1.3 million-a-year pension). "Layoffs and plant closings," Trani says, "are not such a rare event anymore that one generally makes a big deal out of them." Scarcely mentioning the laid-off workers, he acknowledges no hesitation, no regret—in fact, no alternatives. The story, as he tells it, comes down to the difference between successful leaders, who "look at reality as it exists," and unsuccessful ones, who make the mistake of "hoping for it to change."

Trani came to Stanley from General Electric. In his attitude toward layoffs he resembled his former boss, Jack Welch, who had pushed more than a hundred thousand workers off the GE payroll. Welch's combative style has gone out of fashion lately; in fact, Uchitelle had something to do with that. A longtime reporter for The New York Times, he was largely responsible for "The Downsizing of America," an attention-getting series of Times articles on the mass layoffs of the early and mid-1990s. Those articles helped inspire a backlash. Few CEOs, questioned now about layoffs, would permit themselves to boast, as Trani did, of "taking out" workers—as in, "We took out 23 percent of the people" at Best Access, one of the companies Stanley acquired. In his actions if not his affect, however, Trani speaks for a school of management that remains ascendant. He drove Stanley down the path of a great and continuing migration—away from the postwar view of the corporation, whose success rested on a secure workforce and a strong local economy, toward what Greg LeRoy, in The Great American Jobs Scam, calls the "rootless corporation," which defines success by financial measures alone, making it possible to "save" a company by destroying much of what it was.


"The Downsizing of America" came out in March 1996—not the best moment, in hindsight, for a 40,000-word lament on the theme of growing economic insecurity. Inflation and unemployment were falling. The stock market was rising. In Silicon Valley, Washington, D.C., and other centers of optimism, influential commentators were turning out books and articles intended to explain why, unlike previous good times, these could be expected to last virtually forever. Even many of Uchitelle's journalistic peers thought the Times had been too intent on telling an old, downbeat story to notice the new story of America's astonishing resurgence. In The Disposable American, Uchitelle makes it plain that he is writing about a long-term change—one that neither began nor ended in the 1990s, and one that transcends even the wrenching adjustment of an economy moving from manufacturing toward information and service. "The permanent separation of people from their jobs, abruptly and against their wishes," he asserts, has become "standard management practice."

It's a fair statement. Over the past quarter-century, the victims (and potential victims) of layoffs have come to include managers, professionals, and workers in such growth industries as banking and telecommunications. Hardly any company is too successful nowadays to consider a large-scale cutback in jobs. Early last year, Intel was showering cash on its shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks after reporting record 2005 profits of $12.1 billion (partly thanks to a custom-made tax break known as the American Jobs Creation Act). None of that kept CEO Paul Otellini from announcing, several months ago, plans to eliminate 10,500 jobs—10 percent of Intel's total—in order to become a "more agile and efficient" company.

The modern layoff is frequently a hidden layoff, entered in the personnel records as a buyout, an early retirement, or the severing of relations with someone deemed a contractor rather than an employee. Procter and Gamble has unloaded some 20,000 employees since 1993, Uchitelle says, while scarcely registering a blip on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' count of involuntarily displaced workers. With all their omissions, however, even the official data suggest a sharp decline in job security. In 1978, a middle-aged American male could expect to remain with the same employer for eleven years, according to BLS figures. Now it's 7.5 years. Over that same period, the average duration of unemployment has lengthened from thirteen to almost twenty weeks. The long-term economic damage that people suffer has grown, too. If you factor in the impact of foregone pay raises in the old job and lower wages in the new one, according to the Princeton University economist Henry S. Farber, the typical laid-off college graduate now suffers a 30 percent loss of income, up from 10 percent in the early 1980s.

Uchitelle sees Jack Welch as a pivotal figure. Before he came along, a CEO was expected to manage the existing enterprise. Welch enlarged the job description: lifting a page from the corporate raider's playbook, he promised to manage the shareholders' capital as well, by maintaining a steady lookout for more profitable places to put it. There is a case to be made for his approach. It may be better for a company—better even for its workers, and for the economy—to have layoffs spread over time rather than deferred until a moment of crisis. What today's managers like to call a "flexible workforce" has arguably helped American corporations seize opportunities they would have missed if the US had the kind of employment protection that exists in, say, France. Uchitelle is not dogmatic on these points. He simply wants it acknowledged that we are going through something more than a few bumps on the road to "a new equilibrium at the high end of innovation and production." Permanent disequilibrium, he argues, would be a more accurate picture of where we're headed.

Uchitelle's harsh view of the new workplace order sets him at odds not only with corporate leaders but with economic advisers to the last four presidents. Layoffs, he reminds us, were a hot issue in the 1992 presidential campaign. Although Ross Perot's "great sucking sound" is better remembered, Bill Clinton also came down hard on companies that closed factories where Americans made "a decent standard of living" while opening "sweatshops to pay starvation wages in another country." Candidate Clinton wanted corporations to spend at least 1.5 percent of their earnings on "continued education and training." (Companies that made such a commitment were less likely to let employees go, research showed.)

But once he became President Clinton—and as the budget deficit moved to the center of his thinking—continued education and training got a new name and spin. Now the Clintonites began to speak of "lifetime learning," which was more exhortation than policy and directed mainly at employees, not employers. Americans who had lost their jobs or who sensed their skills becoming outmoded were told that they could take charge of their careers, go back to school, and emerge retooled and "reempowered."


While the policy experts may have believed some of this, it bore little relation to the experience of laid-off workers around the country, according to Uchitelle. There were many retraining programs, but scarcely any actual retraining, he says, largely because few appropriate jobs were waiting to be filled even in the surging economy of the late 1990s. The first order of business in many retraining programs was to defuse anger and lower expectations—a process known in the trade, he reports, as "housebreaking." In The Disposable American, Uchitelle describes an Indianapolis program created largely for United Airlines mechanics who lost their jobs when the company bailed out of an advanced maintenance shop for narrow-body jets. The mechanics show up looking for tips about companies that might be hiring or new careers beckoning. What they receive, mostly, is airy wisdom about attitude, interpersonal relations, and the inner self; at least one classful gets free copies of the global best seller Who Moved My Cheese?, which warns those in economic distress not to be led into indignation or dismay by the overly complex human brain. Far better, the book suggests, to adopt the existential pragmatism of mice: No cheese in that corner? Check out this corner.

Uchitelle is a fine reporter. In The Disposable American, he follows several of United's mechanics as they head out into the world of the downsized. After twenty-five years in the airline industry, Ben Nunnally, a specialist in delicate wingskin repairs, becomes a window-washer. Erin Breen goes back to college, gets an engineering degree, and winds up as a janitor in the Indianapolis public schools. Tim Dewey, who has been through one layoff already, resolves to go into business for himself rather than run the risk of a third. With his wife and children, he moves to the Florida panhandle to run a water taxi service, impulsively charging the $54,000 purchase price on three credit cards. He spends five months "hawking boat rides to passing tourists," as Uchitelle puts it, before the business goes bust and the family goes bankrupt. A few hard knocks later, he grabs a chance to return to his old line of work for $17 an hour (half his United pay) as an employee of one of the non-union subcontractors he and his former coworkers had scorned.

As well-paid blue-collar workers, union members, and, for the most part, males without college degrees, United's mechanics were out on a limb. But Uchitelle finds much the same pattern of downward mobility among women, white-collar workers, professionals, and executives. The "vast majority of laid-off workers never get back to where they were," he writes. Moreover, he finds, being laid off is a "fundamental in-the-bones blow to ego and self-worth." People are "cut loose from their moorings and rarely achieve in their next jobs a new and satisfactory sense of themselves."

"The Downsizing of America" was criticized for treating the postwar era as the natural order of the US economy. The relatively secure employment of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s was historically exceptional, Uchitelle acknowledges, and it was secure mainly for Americans fortunate enough to land full-time jobs with major corporations or professional firms. Nevertheless, he regards the ideal as one to cherish and build on. To Uchitelle, the labor practices that others now celebrate as bold and unprecedented look a lot like those of the nineteenth-century robber barons. We should hold today's corporate leaders to a higher standard, he argues, because they know better —or, at any rate, because more is now known about what stable employment means to mental and physical health.

Resentment and self-castigation are recurring themes in The Disposable American. Persuaded to accept a buyout package after twenty-five years at Procter and Gamble, Elizabeth Nash seems unable to find any source of self-confidence other than the scraps of contract work that her former employer throws her way. "It vindicates that I have value," she says. Some people, of course, have more of what it takes to hop from job to job and stay afloat emotionally as well as financially. Among the United mechanics, Uchitelle cites Craig Imperio, who after moving to Georgia and taking a job with Pratt & Whitney, the engine maker, networks around the clock, plays golf with his superiors, and earns a promotion to quality engineer. (Even then, his $50,000-a-year salary remains about $20,000 short of what he made in Indianapolis as a mechanic.) Imperio's brand of resilience could become more widespread as time passes and freelancing becomes an increasingly common way of life. But in the here and now, Uchitelle reasonably insists, lifetime learning is a delusion—and a cruel one, providing cover for layoff-prone companies and setting unrealistically high expectations for layoff victims, who then blame themselves when their experiences fall short.

Layoffs can be unavoidable, Uchitelle acknowledges. His quarrel is with corporate leaders who do not seek to avoid them—and with those, in the corporate world and elsewhere, who count the cost purely in material terms. In conversations with layoff victims, Uchitelle emphasizes the systemic nature of the problem. People tend to "agree perfunctorily," he writes, before going "right back to describing their own devaluing experiences, and why it was somehow their fault or their particular bad luck." Even when thousands of jobs are eliminated at once, few can depersonalize the experience.

Uchitelle resists the temptation to spell out an anti-layoff program. His caution arises partly out of a temperamental inclination to let his reporting speak for itself, and partly out of a bleak assessment of the political world's readiness to entertain the measures he would be tempted to propose. His policy recommendations really boil down to one: when we think about layoffs, we should consider the full range of consequences, and, above all, the emotional and psychological ones, which are, he says, "deep, consistent, and ignored in the political debate."

Ignored and, as he shows, compounded—and not just by callous rhetoric. United could abandon its Indianapolis center with impunity, turning its back on a spectacularly efficient facility, because it would not have to continue making mortgage and maintenance payments of $37.5 million a year. That responsibility passed to the taxpayers of Indiana and Indianapolis under the terms of a 1991 agreement in which United had received the land and $320 million in cash—more than half the facility's total cost. The city and state had done this in the name of "economic development," a seedy business that is briefly discussed in The Disposable American and thoroughly dissected in Greg LeRoy's The Great American Jobs Scam.

2.

The economic development story goes back to the 1930s when a group of southern governors set out to capture some of the manufacturing business of the North by offering cheap capital on top of the traditional lure of cheap labor. In more recent decades, the practice has gone national, and the private sector has taken firm control. To work their will with job-hungry public officials, corporations now routinely deploy teams of lobbyists, site consultants, and other hirelings. The formula rarely fails: drop word of a planned expansion or relocation; create the illusion of a wide-ranging search; overstate the company's own investment and the number of jobs involved; hire fancy experts to talk about the economic ripple effects; walk off with huge subsidies and tax concessions.

Among the southeastern states, North Carolina once had a reputation for refusing to play the economic development game; its relatively prosperous economy was founded on infrastructure, education, and public investment. Nevertheless, the state was easy prey for Dell Computer when, in 1994, the company dangled the prospect of a factory in the Piedmont Triad area. So anxious was the administration of Governor Mike Easley to land the prize that state officials became stooges in Dell's efforts to pit one North Carolina community against another. The company eventually wangled $37 million in tax incentives out of Winston-Salem and Forsythe County, on top of a $267 million subsidy from the state; the total far exceeded the cost of the plant property, and construction combined. After the deal was made, leaked documents revealed a negotiating process that resembled an organized-crime shakedown. "[I'm] not wowed here," Dell's chief emissary complained at one point, adding that a twenty-year income-tax exemption was "my line in the sand." A few weeks later, he was threatening to pull out "unless I can get that income tax resolved."

Was Dell really prepared to go elsewhere? Most companies, LeRoy shows, enter the process with their minds made up. Site selection experts, when they are not off helping companies stage their elaborate "searches," acknowledge that business fundamentals, such as access to key customers and suppliers, generally carry more weight than subsidies do. But while the game may have little to do with where companies decide to locate, it has everything to do with the taxes they pay. LeRoy puts the national cost of these deals at $50 billion a year; they go a long way, he says, toward explaining a sharp decline in corporate taxes as a share of state revenues— from 9.7 percent in 1980 to about 5 percent today. The falloff in some states has been even more precipitous. Corporations paid a third of all taxes in Arkansas as recently as the 1970s; by 2002, the figure was 2 percent.

Beyond the injury to city, county, and state treasuries—and the services they fund—the economic development process "demeans" and "degrades" public officials, LeRoy writes. He means not only the officials who participate, but also those who are cut out of the process—such as the school board members who get "no say in property tax abatements that will corrode their budget" or the revenue director whose "sober advice is upstaged by the frothy projections of an economist rented by the Chamber of Commerce." The rules are designed to bestow the biggest rewards on the companies least likely to show any true attachment to workers or communities. New businesses are subsidized at the expense of existing ones. Big-box retailers gain while independent merchants lose. Commercial and social life is pulled away from Main Streets and downtowns toward malls and strips. Local and state leaders have been known to grovel before telemarketing firms, gambling casinos, and the operators of private prisons.


LeRoy is an activist. His organization, Good Jobs First, has worked with unions, environmentalists, and citizen watchdog groups to resist the giveaways. But realism often compels them to aim for modest goals, such as job-quality guarantees with "clawback" provisions calling for the recovery of taxpayer funds if a company fails to deliver. LeRoy foresees a long campaign of organizing and consciousness-raising before it is even worth talking about more sweeping reforms.

That is about how Uchitelle sizes things up, too, and it is a conclusion shared by John C. Bogle, author of The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism. Bogle has been an investor and innovator in financial management for close to fifty years. He was railing against the chicanery and high fees of the mutual fund industry before Eliot Spitzer had been to law school. Vanguard Management, which Bogle founded in 1972, became the biggest company in the field by keeping commissions low and transactions infrequent—and advertising it. Bogle went on to invent the index fund; while innumerable others claimed the ability to beat the market, he merely offered to approximate the market year after year. That proved to be a better deal for most clients, as he had theorized.

After a heart transplant ten years ago, Bogle retired to a life of full-time hell-raising. The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism is his response to the recent corporate scandals—Enron, MCI WorldCom, and Tyco among them. Not being a prosecutor, though, Bogle fails to see much difference between the acts that sent Jeffrey Skilling, Bernard Ebbers, and Dennis Kozlowski to prison and a host of more common and accepted forms of executive self-enrichment—for example by playing around with employee pension funds in order to inflate company profits and bonuses. At Verizon, Bogle notes, bonuses for the year 2001 were based on profits of $389 million, which rested, in turn, on a supposed $1.8 billion in pension-fund gains.

By the time the company reported those numbers, however, the stock market bubble had burst, making it clear that Verizon's pension funds had actually lost money that year; as it turned out, they had lost a staggering $3.1 billion, obliterating all the claimed profit and then some. Verizon, moreover, was only one of 1,570 companies—"an enormous part of the giant barrel of corporate capitalism"—required to restate corporate earnings for one or more of the years 2000–2004; and "I have not heard of a single instance," Bogle adds, "in which...bonuses have been recalculated and the overpayments returned to the stockholders."

Since the publication of Bogle's book, executives and directors of more than 250 companies have come under suspicion of profiting from fraudulently timed stock option grants. The whistle was blown by Erik Lie, a professor of finance at the University of Iowa. Through statistical analysis, he established a pattern that could not be explained by chance, thus giving new meaning to the term "probable cause." His 2005 paper "On the Timing of CEO Stock Option Awards," prompted investigations by The Wall Street Journal and eventually the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission; their objective, however, was to prove what Bogle might consider a minor point, for, in his mind, stock options were a scam to begin with. In the overheated market of the late 1990s, he shows, options—backdated or not—brought windfall gains to virtually all executives, including some who were leading their companies to ruin while concealing the evidence from (among others) the eventual purchasers of their stock.

Viewing these evils through a shareholder-rights lens, Bogle attributes them to a triumph of "managers' capitalism" over "owners' capitalism." But while he offers plenty of evidence to justify his low opinion of "our imperial chief executives" with "their jet planes...their pension plans, their club dues, their Park Avenue apartments," his argument ranges well beyond the territory suggested by the manager/ owner framework. In almost all their recent misdeeds, he demonstrates, self-serving executives have been abetted by self-serving directors, securities analysts, auditors, lenders, investment bankers, and others. And while shareholders have suffered in case after case, many could be said to have brought their losses on themselves by being just as fixated on market trends—and just as oblivious to business realities—as anyone else in the equation. To Bogle's dismay, few of today's shareholders have much appetite for the rights he asserts on their behalf (over the election and removal of corporate directors, for example); most seem content with the only right that today's executives would willingly grant them —the so-called "right of exit," which gets exercised nowadays with promiscuous frequency, in Bogle's judgment. Twenty years ago, the annual rate of share turnover was about 25 percent; by 2004, he says, it was 150 percent. That kind of manic buying and selling, Bogle convincingly argues, generates wildly irrational levels of market volatility and endless opportunities for insiders to play the market for short-term gain.

Institutional investors now control approximately two thirds of all publicly traded stock in the US. Bogle has for years been trying to mobilize these giants into a new community of owners, capable of restraining corporate avarice and opportunism. Except for a few unions and public pension funds, he has found few takers. Not a single "mutual fund firm, pension manager, bank, or insurance company," he writes, "has ever sponsored a proxy resolution that was opposed by the board of directors."

"Managers' capitalism," then, is Bogle's shorthand for a system of rules, practices, and standards of behavior designed to bring quick and sure rewards to a few at long-term cost to many. Executives are not the only suspects here, and shareholders are not the only victims.[*] Often, Bogle observes, workers and shareholders get defrauded together. That is obviously true when managers cook the books; it can also be true when they cook up dramatic "restructuring" plans entailing mass layoffs. As Uchitelle points out, these plans often generate smaller-than-anticipated savings and bigger-than-anticipated costs—in morale and trust, especially. The point of many recent layoffs has been to free up capital for the repayment of debt incurred in mergers and acquisitions; those deals have a notably bad track record of their own. To understand why so many mergers continue to occur—$3.79 trillion worth in 2006—Bogle suggests that we consider the consequences for the executives who arrange them: not just the bonuses and the increased pay and power, but the ability to "take huge writeoffs—largely ignored by market participants —and create 'cookie jar' reserves"—paper assets created through mergers —"available at the beck and call of management to inflate future earnings on demand."

From their different vantage points, Uchitelle, LeRoy, and Bogle are writing about the breakdown of what some have called the postwar social contract, and about the rise of a new "money power" more daunting, in some ways, than that of the late 1800s and early 1900s. To gain their political ends, the robber barons and monopolists of the Gilded Age were content with corrupting officials and buying elections. Their modern counterparts have taken things a big step further, erecting a loose network of think tanks, corporate spokespeople, and friendly press commentators to shape the way Americans think about the economy. Much as corporate marketing directs our aspirations disproportionately toward commercial goods and services, the new communications apparatus wants us to believe that our economic wellbeing depends almost entirely on the so-called free market—a euphemism for letting the private sector set its own rules. The success of this great effort can be measured in the remarkable fact that, despite the corporate scandals and the social damage that these authors explore; despite three decades of deregulation and privatization and tax-and-benefit-slashing with, as the clearest single result, the relentless rise of economic inequality to levels so extreme that since 2001 "the economy" has racked up five straight years of impressive growth without producing any measurable income gains for most Americans—even now, discussions of solutions or alternatives can be stopped almost dead in their tracks by mention of the word government.


The rules, procedures, and understandings of the postwar social contract were designed for a world in which practical forces kept businesses anchored in geographical place, reinforcing the sense of obligation that many corporate leaders felt toward workers and communities. That being said, those arrangements were spectacularly successful in creating a broad, accessible, and secure middle class, and in bringing unprecedented transparency and fairness to the hazardous relations between individuals (whether customers, workers, neighbors, or shareholders) and corporations.

In addition to being good for the society at large, the postwar social contract turned out to be very good for American business. (No matter what they may say about the role of government, today's corporate chieftains and financiers—the scalawags and the rest—owe their fortunes in no small part to the legacy of trust in the financial markets created by the securities regulations of the New Deal era and onward.) Economically and in other ways, then, the future will depend on our ability to find more durable means toward the same ends; and while none of these books lays out a blueprint, taken together, they suggest a few operating principles.

The economic policy of the United States has in recent memory been directed almost entirely toward the goal of growth, and treated, accordingly, as the preserve of experts and corporate and financial insiders. Policy initiated outside this preserve has been limited, for the most part, to a set of narrowly defined issues (such as health care, retirement security, pollution, etc.) considered fit for democratic deliberation. This compartmentalized approach, we now know, is guaranteed to be an exercise in damage control, requiring obsessive vigilance and leaving a trail of frustration. Instead of trying to prod or seduce companies into doing what they cannot justify from a profit standpoint, we should be trying to bring everyday corporate thinking into rough alignment with the goals of society as a whole.

That will mean, as Bogle says, finding efficient ways to check the speculative excesses of today's financial markets and cut down on the tremendous amount of energy and human as well as economic resources that go into the pursuit of what he calls "aggressive financial targets" at the expense of "character, integrity, enthusiasm, conviction, and passion." It will also mean (in exchange for the privileges and rewards of incorporation and access to regulated financial markets) coming up with mechanisms to recognize the stakeholder status of longtime employees and local communities, and— as we are just beginning to do on environmental issues—bringing some of the intangible concerns of work life and community and social wealth onto the corporate balance sheet.

Devising workable policies in service of these aims; forging new approaches into a coherent and convincing program; looking for strategic ways to loosen the hold that the free-market mythology still has on us—that is the great challenge of this fluid moment in our national story. It is a project filled with difficulties, and, as yet, not so obvious potential. The injuries examined by these books are felt, to one degree or another, by most Americans. A countermovement might eventually be as broad as the harm, reaching across some of the lines that have defined American politics, unconstructively, since the 1970s; such a movement could, in time, draw support from inside as well as outside the business world, since, as Bogle so plainly shows, many corporate decisions reflexively attributed by supporters and critics alike to a "bottom-line mentality" in fact serve what he calls "the wrong bottom line"—one that not only shortchanges investors but tramples on many of the impulses that people naturally bring to the work of creating and building businesses.

Most Americans are troubled by the culture of dealmaking and financial engineering and insider self-enrichment that Bogle deplores; by the callous treatment of workers and work life that Uchitelle describes; by the erosion of communities and community institutions that LeRoy examines. Not very far below the political surface, most of us feel some version of the same vexed ambivalence toward corporate America—dazzled by the conveniences and comforts it delivers, yet resentful of the tradeoffs that it continually demands; few Americans would be anything but grateful if our corporations and financial institutions could develop some respect for our non-material and non-individualistic selves. It is hard to imagine such a fundamental transformation of these giant institutions. It is even harder to imagine a better world in which they remain essentially what they are.

Notes

[*] In fairness to managers—the honest and dutiful ones, that is—long-term thinking becomes a tricky business when you're operating in a stock market so focused on the short term that a penny-a-share shortfall in earnings can whack a few hundred million dollars off your company's market value between one day and the next.

진보블로그 공감 버튼트위터로 리트윗하기페이스북에 공유하기딜리셔스에 북마크
2007/05/30 10:41 2007/05/30 10:41

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Kornai's Choice (Econ. Principals)

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Kornai's Choice

 

http://www.economicprincipals.com/issues/07.05.20.html

One of the most striking features of the years after the collapse of communism has been the general lack of interest on the part of Americans, at least, in what the former communists have to say about their lives, their experiences, their societies. We make exceptions, of course, for defectors, those who wholeheartedly adopted our point of view:  most conspicuously, Alexander Solzhenitsyn (at least for a time). Otherwise, without the full confession of error, it is assumed that the experience they accumulated in all those years of living under central planning is of very little value. No matter who they are, we figure, they only need to take lessons from us.

There is an obvious exception to this rule at the moment, of course.  It is "The Lives of Others," a German drama about the corruption of everyday life by the Stasi secret police in the DDR, the old East Germany. The film won an Academy Award earlier this year (although even here a Hollywood remake is being discussed.) Another, considerably more illuminating testimony is to be found in Janos Kornai's newly-published memoirs, By Force of Thought: Irregular Memoirs of an Intellectual Journey.

Kornai is a famous Hungarian dissenter who, having been hit by the Marxist meatball as a youth (the phrase is that of R. Crumb, coined to describe the many similar conversion experiences among the young in the West of the 1960s), who then broke with the Communist party, who stayed home after the 1956 Hungarian revolt was crushed by the Russians, taught himself economics, and managed to build a formidable reputation among economists in the West as an expert on the mechanics of socialist systems.

Kornai embraced communism after the Russian Army chased the Nazis out of his country in 1945.  The Germans had murdered his lawyer father and older brother the year before. Thus cruelly tumbled from a comfortable haute bourgeois childhood, the 17-year-old changed his name from Kornhauser (which sounded German and Jewish); and traded what had been an "open and flexible" view of the world for a mechanical Spenglerian mindset, in which "the fresh energy and raw barbaric force of the communist movement heralded the coming of a new age."

He joined the Communist Party, read Das Kapital with a friend, annotating every page, and, in due course, got a job on what, under the communists, rapidly became the country's main newspaper. Of Marx, he writes, "The young man who at 14 to 16 had feverishly sought enlightenment in a hundred types of reading now found it radiating like sunshine from those thousand pages." 

The newspaper education was a good one. Kornai rose swiftly, vaulting ahead of more experienced men (two main criteria governed advancement, he says, Party loyalty and ability).  He worked hard, wrote fluently, convinced that he had the inside track on history. The death of Stalin was the crucial watershed; almost immediately, Russia's new rulers recognized the chaos that Stalinist directives had produced, called their Hungarian franchisees to Moscow, and loosened up a bit.  "I was not among those who had suffered in the period before June, and I did not feel the time had come to breathe a sigh of relief," Kornai writes of the "New Course" that Hungarian communism sought to adopt after Stalin's death. But many others did, and in the course of the next two years, Kornai paid attention to them. 

He met an old editor of his paper who had been imprisoned during a purge in 1951 and beaten at the direction of a friend with whom Kornai had joined the Party; after that,  he started paying attention to the number of political prisoners in his little country (40,000 in a nation of ten million in 1953).He read the British journalist Isaac Deutscher's biography of Stalin, and various Yugoslav writers on economic topics.(Tito, having been thrown out of the international Communist party by Stalin, had already begun to decentralize.)  He defied the party boss who told him to attribute electricity shortages and service cuts to "objective circumstances" rather than poor state planning. 

And then, in October 1954, he joined a memorable two-day meeting of Party members at his newspaper at which a couple of dozen staffers endorsed the "New Course" and openly criticized the regime. Inevitably, word of the newspaper rebellion leaked out. Other organizations followed suit. Self-determination was in the air.

Alas, it's hard to loosen by degrees. The Communist Hungarian government reacted. The first three rebellious newsmen were fired in December; Kornai and several others (including his wife) were let go a few months later, after a humiliating "self-criticism."

"My mental state in those months was one of disillusionment, bitterness and horror," he writes in By Force of Thought. "My earlier blind faith was dispelled once and for all.  My eyes had been opened wide to what was happening. Stomach-turning lies, infamous slanders, hypocritical arguments, sly use of real and false reports compiled by informers, threats and blackmail, and mental torture and humiliation of opponents were among the 'normal' weapons used in Communist factional fighting. .... I wanted to get as far as I could from this pollution." 

Already his first newspaper editor, his old friend Miklós Gimes, had told him, "Politics is not for you. You would do better if you became a researcher; it would suit you better." Kornai earlier had wangled admission to Budapest's Institute of Economics as a result.  Now he took advantage of it, becoming a full-time student. From the start, his work as a scholar displayed a strong empirical bent: countless interviews with managers in light industry. What were the problems with which they dealt?  In little more than a year, he had written a dissertation:  Overcentralization in Economic Administration.  It contained none of the usual Marxist jargon, just a steady parade of facts about bottlenecks, plan bargaining, mismatched incentives of all sorts. Within the Institute, it was well received -- enough to win Kornai an appointment as a research fellow, with a salary and a bonus to boot.

But first there would be a public defense. It was held September 24, 1956 -- barely a month before the outbreak of the Hungarian revolt against Russian rule. Word of the event had got around town, naturally; some two hundred persons showed up for what the cognoscenti described as "a choice political morsel."  Newspapers carried news of the highly favorable debate. No wonder, then, that Kornai was enlisted a month later to write the economic section of the speech Imre Nagy would give as new prime minister. That night Hungarian security police shot unarmed demonstrators at the state radio station.  The next morning he started to work on a draft.

It was the last time Kornai would dabble in politics. Ten days later, Soviet tanks rolled into Budapest. His friend and former editor Gimes, having started an illicit newspaper (Kornai declined to participate) was hunted down by police (after hiding for a few days in Kornai's mother's apartment) and later hanged. So was prime minister Nagy.  Kornai was interrogated repeatedly, though never tortured.  He did not turn on his friend, though he buckled in small degrees in other situations. (The passages in which he reconstructs his calculus in these matters are among the most moving in the book.)

Nor did he take the opportunity to leave Hungary for the West, as did some 200,000 to 250,000 others, including his closest friend. Instead, between times, he studied his German edition of Paul Samuelson's Foundation of Economic Analysis. As Soviet tanks shut down the city, he had decided both to remain in Hungary, and to become part of the economics profession of the West, even while declining to emigrate.

A year later, towards the end of 1957, blackballed at Budapest's Karl Marx University of Economics, he was quietly dismissed from his job at the Institute.

That was the nadir. Starting in 1958, Kornai found jobs that permitted him to carry on his work, first with the Light Industry Planning Board, then with the Textile Industry Research Institute. He remarried, the economist Zsuzsa Dániel, whom he met while he worked on mathematical models at the National Planning Office. On Oxford economist John Hicks' recommendation, Overcentralization was translated into English.  It appeared in 1959, to glowing reviews. Who had the nerve to write so candidly about the Communist world from the inside?

As early as 1958, London School of Economics professor Ely Devons had invited him to teach there. Only in 1962 was he permitted to lecture in East Germany, Poland and Czechoslovakia. Edmund Malinvaud succeeded in winning him permission to travel to the West -- to England -- in 1963, where he met Tjalling Koopmans, who would become his long-time friend. Kenneth Arrow invited him to Stanford in 1968, and thereafter he was relatively free to work abroad, in Cambridge, at Yale, Princeton, Stockholm University, the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton.  But it was not until 1986, when he accepted an offer from Harvard University that permitted him to split his time between Cambridge and Budapest, that he finally became a full professor at a university.

Until then, Kornai had had relatively few doctoral students of his own, the mathematical frontier having steadily moved on since he learned linear programming from Samuelson, Robert Solow and Robert Dorfman's text. But at last there was time to excavate an idea that had been implicit in his work for years -- the "soft budget constraint," meaning the socialist practice of routinely plowing resources into failing enterprises even when they routinely exceeded their budgets, year after year (as opposed to the "hard" constraint of bankruptcy.) Kornai first employed the phrase in 1979, but not until he acquired a Swedish co-author (and not long thereafter, a son-in-law), Jörgen Weibull, did the pair undertake mathematical modeling of what by then they were calling "paternalism." With Ágnes Matits, a young Hungarian collaborator, Kornai then sought to empirically document the phenomenon in socialist economies.

Meanwhile, Richard Quandt at Princeton had begun formal modeling of the propensity to bail out failing enterprises -- what he called "the Kornai effect." Soon Eric Maskin and Mathais Dewatripont at Harvard had cast the familiar phenomenon of "too big to fail" in game-theoretic terms. Yet when Kornai sent a literary summary to the American Economic Review in 1984, it was rejected.

Kyklos, an international journal noted for publishing original approaches, immediately accepted it without revision, and at last Kornai had a famous paper, perhaps the most frequently cited of all his papers.

It is sometimes said that Kornai's reputation rests on four books. Overcentralization (1959), Anti-Equilibrium (1971), The Economics of Shortage (1980), and The Socialist System (1992). It is held against him that he failed to foresee the collapse. "Kornai's tragedy is that by the time he finished explaining why the socialist system did not work, it had disappeared," wrote Robert Skidelsky in the current New York Review of Books. In fact, The Road to a Free Economy (1990) is in some ways Kornai's best and most important book, and the real tragedy is that the gradualist approach to privatization that he advocated in it was almost universally ignored in Eastern Europe and Russia.

The patching and darning of socialism had to end, wrote Kornai.  There could be no more wistful longing for "a third way."  Socialist economies would have to change completely.  But the accelerated privatization schemes of Western reformers were misguided, he argued. Vouchers, mutual fund distributions and other "big-bang" schemes conveyed the impression "that Daddy state has unexpectedly passed away and left us, his orphaned children, to distribute the patrimony equitably.... The point is not to hand out the property, but rather to place it into the hands of a really better owner."

In the end, Hungary preferred the slow sequence of events recommended by the book, while Russia tried to convert to democracy and capitalism overnight. The rest is history.

Kornai was in Cambridge, Mass., last week in connection with the publication of his book. At one point, he gave a seminar to a circle of old friends.  Here is how his old friend (and fellow Hungarian), Harvard economist Francis Bator concluded his introductory remarks:

"Some might think a blemish Kornai's choice, as he puts it in the book, 'not [to] indulge in heroic, illegal forms of struggle against the communist system...[instead] to contribute to renewal through...scholarly activity.'  Not so. If you want your bold ideas to affect the real world, you have sometimes to restrain your impulse to be bold. It is the courageous tradeoff of a quintessentially autonomous man." 

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2007/05/30 10:36 2007/05/30 10:36

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Heterodox Economics in the US

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Hip Heterodoxy

Christopher Hayes

 

It's a Friday night in January, and I am searching for a free drink among 9,000 economists. Every year a sizable portion of the nation's economists descend on some lucky city for the Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, the economics field's largest gathering, a kind of carnival of suits and supply curves.

Most academic disciplines have a similar annual convention, but no other can boast the same influence on American politics and policy--after all, Presidents don't appoint a council of anthropological advisers. It doesn't take long for mainstream academic thinking to become the foundation for the government's macroeconomic policy.

In 1968 Milton Friedman, then president of the American Economics Association (AEA), devoted his presidential address to arguing against Keynesian meddling in the economy and for a monetary policy focused on restraining inflation.

A decade later, his prescriptions would be largely adopted. In 2005 onetime Reagan adviser Martin Feldstein called for Social Security privatization just as Republicans in Washington were mobilizing (unsuccessfully) toward the same end.

For more reading, http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070611/hayes

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2007/05/29 12:05 2007/05/29 12:05

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Financial Times Report on US Subprime mortgage crisis

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US subprime crisis hits house sales

By Eoin Callan in Washington

Published: May 25 2007 18:02 | Last updated: May 25 2007 18:02

 

The crisis in the high-risk mortgage market made it harder for Americans to sell their homes last month, according to real estate agents.

 

Sales of existing homes fell to their lowest level in three years with a drop of 2.6 per cent in April, data from the National Association of Realtors indicated on Friday.

 

The association said home purchases were being held back because subprime lenders were applying tighter standards following the collapse of the high-risk mortgage market.

 

The Federal Reserve does not expect the crisis to have a lasting impact on the housing market, despite increasing signs of distress among high-risk borrowers and the collapse of leading subprime lenders.

Gary Bigg, an economist at Bank Of America, said: “Prospects for future home sales remain mixed as the problems in the subprime market and tighter credit standards are partially offset by improving housing affordability.”

 

Mr Bigg said he was expecting a gradual recovery in the market for existing homes following signs this week that sales by developers of new homes were picking up after an 18-month slump.

Alan Ruskin, an analyst at RBS, said: “The latest numbers do not themselves negate the perception of somewhat better transaction trends from the new home sales. I still think housing demand has put in a bottom.”

 

The fall in sales of existing homes last month was widespread across the country and dragged the annual rate of home sales to below 6m units, compared with expectations that purchases would hold steady at a rate of about 6.15m homes.

 

Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody’s, said the increase in inventory was “the most disconcerting” element of the figures.

 

The slowdown in purchases drove the excess supply of single-family homes on the market up to about eight months’ worth of sales from seven months’ supply in March. The supply of condominiums also climbed to 9.5 months’ worth of sales from 8.8 months.

 

Economists are awaiting figures that give a fuller picture of how the housing market has performed during the crucial spring selling season when most homes are bought.

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2007/05/29 04:31 2007/05/29 04:31

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NYT Report - US Opinion Poll about Iraq Invasion

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The New York Times 

May 25, 2007

Poll Shows View of Iraq War Is Most Negative Since Start

Correction Appended

Americans now view the war in Iraq more negatively than at any time since the invasion more than four years ago, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Sixty-one percent of Americans say the United States should have stayed out of Iraq and 76 percent say things are going badly there, including 47 percent who say things are going very badly, the poll found.

Still, the majority of Americans support continuing to finance the war as long as the Iraqi government meets specific goals.

President Bush’s approval ratings remain near the lowest of his more than six years in office. Thirty percent approve of the job he is doing over all, while 63 percent disapprove.

More Americans — 72 percent — now say that “generally things in the country are seriously off on the wrong track” than at any other time since the Times/CBS News poll began asking the question in 1983. The number has slowly risen since January 2004. Then, 53 percent said the country was “seriously off on the wrong track,” and by January of this year it was 68 percent.

Public support for the war has eroded. In December 2003, 64 percent of Americans said the United States did the right thing in taking military action in Iraq and 28 percent said the United States should have stayed out. The current numbers are nearly reversed, with 35 percent saying the United states did the right thing and 61 percent saying the country should have stayed out. In January of this year, 58 percent said the United States should have stayed out of Iraq and 38 percent said going in was the right thing.

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted Friday through Wednesday with 1,125 adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

A majority, 76 percent, including 51 percent of Republicans, say additional troops sent to Iraq this year by Mr. Bush either have had no impact or are making things worse. Twenty percent of all respondents say the increase is improving the situation.

Most Americans support a timetable for withdrawal. Sixty-three percent say the United States should set a date for withdrawing troops from Iraq sometime in 2008.

While troops are still in Iraq, Americans overwhelmingly support continuing to finance the war, though most want to do so with conditions. Thirteen percent want Congress to block all money for the war.

Sixty-nine percent, including 62 percent of Republicans, say Congress should allow financing, but on the condition that the United States sets benchmarks for progress and the Iraqi government meets those goals. Fifteen percent of all respondents want Congress to allow all financing for the war, no matter what.

The poll found Americans are more likely to trust the Democratic Party than the Republican Party to make the right decisions about the war in Iraq. Slightly more than half of those polled, 51 percent, said the Democratic Party was more likely than the Republican Party to make the right decisions about the war.

More broadly, 53 percent of those polled say they have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 38 percent have a favorable view of the Republican Party. The Republican Party has not had a majority positive rating in Times/CBS News polls since December 2003.

As for Mr. Bush, 23 percent approve of his handling of the situation in Iraq, 72 percent disapprove; 25 percent approve of his handling of foreign policy, 65 percent disapprove; and 27 percent approve of his handling of immigration issues, while 60 percent disapprove.

On the economy, 36 percent approve of his handling of the issue, and 56 percent disapprove. In the campaign against terrorism, 42 percent approve, and 52 percent disapprove.

Correction: May 26, 2007

An article yesterday about a New York Times/CBS News poll that measured opinion about the Iraq war misstated the date of the first Times/CBS News poll that included a question about whether the United States did the right thing in taking military action in Iraq. It was December 2003, not January 2003. (The war did not begin until March 2003.)

 

 


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2007/05/28 12:38 2007/05/28 12:38

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NYT Report on US Soldiers in Iraq

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The New York Times 

May 28, 2007

As Allies Turn Foe, Disillusion Rises in Some G.I.’s

BAGHDAD — Staff Sgt. David Safstrom does not regret his previous tours in Iraq, not even a difficult second stint when two comrades were killed while trying to capture insurgents.

“In Mosul, in 2003, it felt like we were making the city a better place,” he said. “There was no sectarian violence, Saddam was gone, we were tracking down the bad guys. It felt awesome.”

But now on his third deployment in Iraq, he is no longer a believer in the mission. The pivotal moment came, he says, this February when soldiers killed a man setting a roadside bomb. When they searched the bomber’s body, they found identification showing him to be a sergeant in the Iraqi Army.

“I thought: ‘What are we doing here? Why are we still here?’ ” said Sergeant Safstrom, a member of Delta Company of the First Battalion, 325th Airborne Infantry, 82nd Airborne Division. “We’re helping guys that are trying to kill us. We help them in the day. They turn around at night and try to kill us.”

His views are echoed by most of his fellow soldiers in Delta Company, renowned for its aggressiveness.

A small minority of Delta Company soldiers — the younger, more recent enlistees in particular — seem to still wholeheartedly support the war. Others are ambivalent, torn between fear of losing more friends in battle, longing for their families and a desire to complete their mission.

With few reliable surveys of soldiers’ attitudes, it is impossible to simply extrapolate from the small number of soldiers in the company. But in interviews with more than a dozen soldiers in this 83-man unit over a one-week period, most said they were disillusioned by repeated deployments, by what they saw as the abysmal performance of Iraqi security forces and by a conflict that they considered a civil war, one they had no ability to stop.

They had seen shadowy militia commanders installed as Iraqi Army officers, they said, had come under increasing attack from roadside bombs — planted within sight of Iraqi Army checkpoints — and had fought against Iraqi soldiers whom they thought were their allies.

“In 2003, 2004, 100 percent of the soldiers wanted to be here, to fight this war,” said Sgt. First Class David Moore, a self-described “conservative Texas Republican” and platoon sergeant who strongly advocates an American withdrawal. “Now, 95 percent of my platoon agrees with me.”

It is not a question of loyalty, the soldiers insist. Sergeant Safstrom, for example, comes from a thoroughly military family. His mother and father have served in the armed forces, as have his three sisters, one brother and several uncles. One week after the Sept. 11 attacks, he walked into a recruiter’s office and joined the Army.

“You guys want to start a fight in my backyard, I got something for you,” he recalls thinking at the time.

But in Sergeant Safstrom’s view, the American presence is futile. “If we stayed here for 5, even 10 more years, the day we leave here these guys will go crazy,” he said. “It would go straight into a civil war. That’s how it feels, like we’re putting a Band-Aid on this country until we leave here.”

Their many deployments have added to the strain. After spending six months in Iraq, the soldiers of Delta Company had been home for only 24 hours last December when the news came. “Change your plans,” they recall being told. “We’re going back to Iraq.”

Nineteen days later, just after Christmas, Capt. Douglas Rogers and the men of Delta Company were on their way to Kadhimiya, a Shiite enclave of about 300,000 people. As part of the so-called surge of American troops, their primary mission was to maintain stability in the area and prepare the Iraqi Army and the police to take control of the neighborhood.

“I thought it would not be long before we could just stay on our base and act as a quick-reaction force,” said the barrel-chested Captain Rogers of San Antonio. “The Iraqi security forces would step up.”

It has not worked out that way. Still, Captain Rogers says their mission in Kadhimiya has been “an amazing success.”

“We’ve captured 4 of the top 10 most-wanted guys in this area,” he said. And the streets of Kadhimiya are filled with shoppers and the stores are open, he said, a rarity in Baghdad due partly to Delta Company’s patrols.

Captain Rogers acknowledges the skepticism of many of his soldiers. “Our unit has already sent two soldiers home in a box,” he said. “My soldiers don’t see the same level of commitment from the Iraqi Army units they’re partnered with.”

Yet there is, he insists, no crisis of morale: “My guys are all professionals. I tell them to do something, they do it.” His dictum is proved on patrol, where his soldiers walk the streets for hours in the stifling heat, providing cover for one another with crisp efficiency.

On April 29, a Delta Company patrol was responding to a tip at Al Sadr mosque, a short distance from its base. The soldiers saw men in the distance erecting barricades that they set ablaze, and the streets emptied out quickly. Then a militia, believed to be the Mahdi Army, began firing at them from rooftops and windows.

Sgt. Kevin O’Flarity, a squad leader, jumped into his Humvee to join his fellow soldiers, racing through abandoned Iraqi Army and police checkpoints to the battle site.

He and his squad maneuvered their Humvees through alleyways and side streets, firing back at an estimated 60 insurgents during a gun battle that raged for two and a half hours. A rocket-propelled grenade glanced off Sergeant O’Flarity’s Humvee, failing to penetrate.

When the battle was over, Delta Company learned that among the enemy dead were at least two Iraqi Army soldiers that American forces had helped train and arm.

Captain Rogers admits, “The 29th was a watershed moment in a negative sense, because the Iraqi Army would not fight with us,” adding, “Some actually picked up weapons and fought against us.”

The battle changed the attitude among his soldiers toward the war, he said. “Before that fight, there were a few true believers.” Captain Rogers said. “After the 29th, I don’t think you’ll find a true believer in this unit. They’re paratroopers. There’s no question they’ll fulfill their mission. But they’re fighting now for pride in their unit, professionalism, loyalty to their fellow soldier and chain of command.”

To Sergeant O’Flarity, the Iraqi security forces are militias beholden to local leaders, not the Iraqi government. “Half of the Iraqi security forces are insurgents,” he said.

As for his views on the war, Sergeant O’Flarity said, “I don’t believe we should be here in the middle of a civil war.”

“We’ve all lost friends over here,” he said. “Most of us don’t know what we’re fighting for anymore. We’re serving our country and friends, but the only reason we go out every day is for each other.”

“I don’t want any more of my guys to get hurt or die,” he continued. “If it was something I felt righteous about, maybe. But for this country and this conflict, no, it’s not worth it.”

Staff Sgt. James Griffin grew up in Troy, N.C., near the Special Operations base at Fort Bragg. His dream was to be a soldier, and growing up, he would skip school and volunteer to play the role of the enemy during Special Operations training exercises. When he was 17, he joined the Army.

Now 22, Sergeant Griffin is a Delta Company section leader. On the night of May 5, as he neared an Iraqi police checkpoint with a convoy of Humvees, Sergeant Griffin spotted what looked like a camouflaged cinderblock and immediately halted the convoy. His vigilance may have saved the lives of several soldiers. Under the camouflage was a massive, six-array, explosively formed penetrator — a deadly roadside bomb that cuts through the Humvees’ armor with ease.

The insurgents quickly set off the device, but the Americans were at a safe distance. An explosive ordnance disposal team arrived to check the area. As the ordnance team rolled back to base, they were attacked with a second roadside bomb near another Iraqi checkpoint. One soldier was killed and two were wounded.

No one has been able to explain why two bombs were found near Iraqi checkpoints, bombs that Iraqi soldiers and the police had either failed to notice or helped to plant.

Sergeant Griffin, too, understands the criticism of the Iraqi forces, but he says they and the war effort must be given more time.

 

“If we throw this problem to the side, it’s not going to fix itself,” he said. “We’ve created the Iraqi forces. We gave them Humvees and equipment. For however long they say they need us here, maybe we need to stay.”

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2007/05/28 12:34 2007/05/28 12:34

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