CINA

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A WAR, CALLED "SUMMER RAIN"

While the main German newspapers this morning(local time/CET) were headlining "HAMAS IS RECOGNIZING ISRAEL", IDF was already crossing the border to Gaza to launch the operation called "Summer Rain".

How not other to expect IDF last night moved into the territory of Gaza. Now, after they bombed last night three bridges(to split Gaza in two parts) and the power plant, about 5,000 Israeli troops, including hundreds of tanks are stying two KM inside the southern part of Gaza and waiting for further orders.

Palestinian fighters, there are ten thousands in arms, already yesterday were building roadbolcks(but it seems more like sandbox games..) and promised "bloody resistance", but until now no real resistance was happen..

Right now, only few minutes ago, CNN reported that IAF was attacking a Hamas training camp.

Ok, here the latest news by international and Israeli agencies/newspapers:

Israel enters Gaza

Conal Urquhart in Tel Aviv
Wednesday June 28, 2006
The Guardian


A Palestinian boy walks over a bridge destroyed by an Israeli missile in the Gaza Strip.

Photograph: Mohammed Salem/Reuters
 

As tension mounted in Gaza, the Israeli army introduced checkpoints in the West Bank, fearing an 18-year-old man had also been abducted there. The Israeli police said today they still had no proof that Eliyahu Asheri had been kidnapped despite not being seen since Sunday.

A spokesman for the Popular Resistance Committees told al-Jazeera satellite TV that the group was holding Mr Asheri, who is from the West Bank settlement of Itamar. The spokesman, known as Abu Abir, said the man would be "butchered in front of TV cameras" if Israel did not stop its raid on the Gaza Strip.

Mr Asheri was last seen at a Jerusalem hitchhiking stop used by settlers heading into the West Bank. News agencies were told of the kidnapping by militants on Monday and his family called police about his disappearance yesterday.

The three bridges destroyed in the air strikes were the main links between north and south Gaza, crossing the Wadi Gaza, a valley filled with untreated sewage.

Israeli jets also broke the sound barrier over Gaza several times, causing sonic booms. An Israeli army spokeswoman said: "During the night, the Israeli airforce hit three bridges in central Gaza and a power station south of Gaza City. Israeli forces entered the south of Gaza near the village of Dahaniya and the airport and they remain there at the moment."

She said the operations were designed to stop the kidnappers moving the soldier. However, security sources told Israeli media that the attacks were also motivated by revenge. "To exact a price for the kidnapping incident and to restore deterrence," one official told the Israeli daily newspaper Yedioth Aronoth.

The army was positioned about a mile from Rafah, the southern Gaza town that has witnessed much fighting in recent years. Residents living close to the town's outskirts fled their homes as militants began laying explosive devices and making barriers in anticipation of a full invasion.

Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, said Israel's military action had only just begun. "We won't hesitate to carry out extreme action to bring Gilad back to his family," he said. "We do not intend to reoccupy Gaza. We do not intend to stay there. We have one objective, and that is to bring Gilad home."

Speaking at an awards ceremony at his residence in Jerusalem, Mr Olmert insisted Israel would not negotiate for the soldier's release.

Security officials are debating the next step. Options include kidnapping an important Palestinian leader or assassinating Hamas leaders.

Haim Ramon, the justice minister, said Israel would try to assassinate Khaled Mashaal, a Hamas leader based in Damascus, who Israel believes gave the order for the kidnapping. "He is definitely in our sights ... he is a target," Mr Ramon told Army Radio.

Mr Mashaal has always been an Israeli target. In 1997, Israeli agents injected poison in his ear in Amman but were caught by Jordanian police. Israel was forced to send a doctor with the antidote to Amman and free dozens of Palestinian prisoners including Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the Hamas leader later assassinated by Israel.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1807825,00.html

PHOTOS: Troops Move Into Palestinian Territories

Israel Launches Military Operation in Gaza Strip

(Washington Post)

Israeli troops move into Gaza
(IHT/NYT)

Israel launches Gaza offensive

(Al Jazeera)

Please check out also the Israeli media, such as

Haaretz

http://www.haaretz.com/

Jerusalem Post

http://www.jpost.com/

Yedioth Ahronoth

http://www.ynetnews.com/

..for the latest news on the battle field.

Meanwhile Arab activists opened a new front-line:

Major Israeli websites hacked

More than 750 Israeli websites hacked in recent hours. Among them: Soldier’s Treasury Bank, Rambam Hospital, and Globus Group ticket center. Hackers: You’re killing Palestinians, we’re killing servers 

Unprecedented number of Israeli websites hacked: Hundreds of websites were damaged by hackers in recent hours, following IDF activity in the Gaza Strip. The hackers are members of the Moroccan “Team Evil” group, responsible for most of the website damage in Israel in the past year. This is the largest, most concentrated attack on Israeli websites in recent years.

The IDF, ready to take "extreme actions"(E. Olmert)

BBC World:

Israel warns of 'extreme' action

Hamas official: We'll kidnap more soldiers

If Israelis do not negotiate a prisoner swap, Palestinians militants will conclude that they should capture more IDF soldiers or "kill soldiers even if they have the opportunity to capture them,"...

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/732368.html

IDF: Green light to enter northern Gaza

Forces stationed in Strip receive approval to continue operation; entry expected to be slower, more complex, mainly due to terror cells' resistance 

Green light to continue operation: The Israel Defense Forces received a green light to expand Operation Summer Rains in the Gaza Strip.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3268747,00.html

Finally, I think, the time of "funny games" is over.. definitely!!

.....................................................................................

PS: The German newpaper Tageszeitung(a little similar with Hankyoreh) wrote in its today's edition "despite the threat of a invasion by the IDF a clear majority(of the Palestinians in Gaza) is in solidarity with the kidnappers of the Israeli soldier"..

http://www.taz.de/pt/2006/06/28/a0170.1/text

To be updated as soon as there are more news available..

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YES WAR! NO PEACE!

While Israeli tanks and troops massed near Gaza since yesterday for a threatened offensive against Palestinan militants the "resistance" organizations are preparing for a real war with the "zionist enemy". Actually it seems that some of this groups are just welcome the (likely) near confrontation with IDF. And some groups are possibly thinking that it might be a good idea to exacerbate the current already dangerous situation by announcing more (hopefully empty) threats, for example to use chemical weapons adainst Isreali targets. Meanwhile, according to Israeli and intl news agencies, the "Popular Resistance Committees" in the West Bank kidnapped yesterday a Israeli settler.

PFLP fighter in Gaza,

ready for WAR

Al-Aqsa Brigades: Chemical warfare if Israel invades Gaza
 
Fatah’s armed wing says it has developed biological, chemical weapons. ‘We say to Olmert, Peretz: Your threats of invasion do not frighten us. We will surprise you with new weapons you have not faced until now,’ Al-Aqsa Brigades says
 
The al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, Fatah’s armed wing, announced that it has developed biological and chemical weapons, Palestinian news agency Ramattan reported.
“With the help of Allah, we are pleased to say that we succeeded in developing over 20 different types of biological and chemical weapons,
  
this after a three-year effort,” the group said in a leaflet it has distributed. “We say to (Prime Minister Ehud) Olmert and (Defense Minister Amir) Peretz: Your threats of invasion do not frighten us. We will surprise you with new weapons you have not faced until now. As soon as an IDF soldier sets foot on Gazan land, we will respond with a new weapon.”
The organization said it would not hesitate to use the substances, adding that they can be placed on rockets similar to those fired at Israeli communities surrounding Gaza.
“If Israel invades Gaza, we will declare open warfare without limits, as long as that is what the occupier wants,” the Brigades said.

The full article(in Yedioth Ahronoth) you'll find here:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3267293,00.html

Al-Aksa claims chemical capabilities (J'Post, 6.25) 

The Aksa Martyrs Brigades announced on Sunday that its members have succeeded in manufacturing chemical and biological weapons.

In a leaflet distributed in the Gaza Strip, the group, which belongs to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah Party, said the weapons were the result of a three-year effort..

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1150885848200&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

There are 200 "talkbacks", just check it our.. 

Here very latest news(by AP) about the situation on the ground:

Palestinians Brace for Israeli Invasion

Israeli Leader Vows 'Broad' Gaza Offensive

With troops poised to invade Gaza, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Monday ruled out bargaining with the captors of an Israeli soldier and promised a ``broad and ongoing'' military offensive...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-5913843,00.html

Israel may assassinate Haniyeh (Ynet/Yedioth Ahronoth)

Palestinian president warns Palestinian prime minister Israel may hurt him, other Hamas ministers if crisis around Israeli soldier's abduction is not resolved soon, al-Hayat newspaper reports; Palestinian security sources believe Israel will prefer to target senior Hamas members in Damascus..

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3267935,00.html

And so on, and so on..

IDF: ready for 'broad and ongoing' military offensive, ready for WAR

And here the very, very latest news (reported just few minutes ago):

Hamas-Fatah to Implicitly Recognize Israel

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22 DAYS OF HUNGER STRIKE

by MOON JEONG-HEON

For more infos pleae check out:

http://www.saveptfarmers.org/

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Right now, but one year ago, we - dozens of migrant worker activists, our Korean supporters and MWTV staff(..me^^) - were sitting in a restaurant near Kyobo B/D, in the center of Seoul, after we finished two rallies/demonstrations.

The first event was, in the early afternoon, the MTU(Migrant Workers Trade Union) rally in Myeong-dong where hundreds of migrants, Korean workers and students protested against the ongoing policy of manhunt and mass-deportation by the S. Korean govt against migrant workers in general and against the kidnapping and imprisonment, in the month before, of Anwar Hossein("Anwar-wiweonjang"), the chairperson of MTU.

About two hours later or so we joined the anti-war rally in Daehak-no and the following demonstration to Gwanghwamun, downtown Seoul, aimed on one side against the collaboration of S. Korean troops in the ongoing war in Iraq. On the other side the rally/demo should remember the death of the S. Korean citizen Kim Seon-il who was kidnapped and later beheaded by Al Qaeda in Iraq one year ago(2004). Ha, here one of our representative, who held the speech on the opening rally called Kim Seon-il a S. Korean "migrant worker" in Iraq...^^ Btw.. on this rally/demo, when I remember well, much more people participated as on the event what was held two days ago(6.24) in Seoul..

Actually both rallies/demos were the last of such events I was able to join in S. Korea..

And it was also the last time for me that I was sitting together with many of my comrades to have a kind of after-demo-"party".

uhuu.. it's very strange for me to remember.. I miss everything..

More pictures about both demos you can see here:

http://blog.jinbo.net/CINA/?pid=207

http://blog.jinbo.net/CINA/?pid=209

Here:

이주노동자 세상. 4회(2005.07.16) 

in MWTV 4th edition(in the first third of the entire broadcasting) you can watch some of my (video) shots I did during this events. But actually I wasn't able to edit the stuff/complete my planned documentary.. and so you see mainly stuff what I never wanted to use..

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Here just some impressions..

Sorry, but I don't know what was really going on y'day there. Well, actually since years I'm demanding to get informations.. NO WAY! Only when I was joining the stuff by myself I was able to report about it - and(of course^^) when I was in "duty" I was reporting about our latest activities as soon as possible, mainly at least in the early morning of the following day..

But today.. perhaps the comrades, who are in "duty", don't think that it is necessary to inform the public about our activities..

Wow, but a lot of representatives of the KTX struggle/strike group(2nd pic) joined the rally/demo!! 

Source: 김지태(다함께)

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Before y'day, perhaps, the "real funny" part of 2006 WC was beginning(here in Stuttgart).

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ATTACK->COUNTER ATTACK->ATTACK TO COUNTER THE COUNTER ATTACK..

..and so on, and so on..

Since today morning(CET) Isreali and intl news agencies are perorting about following new developments in the PA - Israel "relationship". And it seems that the new round of escalation is just in the beginning..

Ynet/Yedioth Ahronoth reported just a short while ago:

Gaza: 2 troops killed, 1 kidnapped

Terror cell infiltrates Israel from southern Gaza Strip, abducts soldier out of tank; initial inquiry reveals terrorists arrived at IDF post through tunnel, fired anti-tank missile at soldiers, activated explosive device

The IDF .. will recommend the government to launch a large-scale operation in Gaza in wake of the incident 
 
Day of battle in Gaza Strip: A soldier and a tank commander, a second lieutenant, were killed Sunday morning, and another soldier was kidnapped after a Palestinian terror cell launched a combined attack on an Israel Defense Forces post in the southern Gaza Strip, near Kibbutz Kerem Shalom.

Several soldiers were lightly to moderately injured in the incident and were taken by helicopter to the Soroka Medical Center in Be'er Sheva.

Following the incident, IDF forces entered areas in the southern Strip, where they are currently operating. Sources in the Strip reported that different elements, including some in Egypt and Jordan, are mediating between Israel and the Palestinian Authority through the Palestinian security organizations in a bid to find out what happened to the kidnapped soldier.

Gaza Operation 
 

Sources in the government added that talks are being held in the European Union and in the United States in a bid to locate the missing soldier. Government officials refused to say whether the PA answered their calls.

The IDF Spokesperson's Office said: "The terror attack was led by senior Hamas members in the Gaza Strip and was approved by the Hamas leadership. The IDF views the incident with severity and sees the Palestinian Authority and the Hamas government responsible for the terror attack and for the fate of the missing soldier."

Defense Minister Amir Peretz reported to the ministers during Sunday's cabinet meeting that the attack in Kerem Shalom was mainly implemented by "hurling grenades at a tank."

Peretz said that according to reports received by the defense establishment, the attack was carried out by Hamas.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told his ministers that "Abu Mazen (Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas) and (Palestinian Prime Minister) Ismail Haniyeh are the people responsible for the attack."

IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Dan Halutz held a meeting Sunday morning to asses the situation in southern Gaza. The IDF views the incident as extremely severe, and according to estimates, the army will recommend the government to launch a large-scale operation in Gaza in wake of the incident.

The well-planned attack on the post started, at 5:40 a.m., according to the IDF. Eight armed Palestinians infiltrated Israel through a tunnel leading from the Strip into Israel's territory, and split into three teams once they came out. One team approached an armored personnel carrier stationed at the place and fired at it. The APC was empty and no injuries were reported in that attack.

Another group simultaneously fired a missile and hurled grenades at a tank standing nearby. The missile hit the tank's rear, hurting the four soldiers that were inside. Two were immediately killed, a third soldier sustained injuries and the fourth was initially reported missing. As the incident developed, security officials came to believe that the soldier has been kidnapped.

During the attack, a third terrorist team moved in the direction of a desert patrol army post and engaged in a shooting battle with the soldiers. An explosive device was also activated at the place. Three soldiers sustained light-to-moderate injuries as a result of the blast, and some of the terrorists were hurt as well.

From the moment the incident was first reported of, the Southern Command and the General Staff have held constant meetings to evaluate the situation, headed by Army Chief Dan Halutz, in a bid to track down the cell behind the kidnapping and return the soldier to Israel.

At the initial stage, heavy equipment was deployed in the area where the incident occurred and where the tunnel was located, in order to try and uncover the terrorists' path. Large forces, including special units, have gone on a state of alert and are preparing to enter Rafah in a bid to locate the abducted soldier.

The IDF has also asked the Egyptian policemen stationed on the border to secure the area and make sure the terrorists don’t try and transfer the solider to Egypt.

While the army has not completed investigating the occurrences in Kerem Shalom, difficult questions arise regarding the way the terrorists managed to infiltrate Israel and carry out the attack. One of the main questions is whether the deployment of the forces in the area was adequate. It is also unclear why no forces provided covering fire for the tank and APC at the post.

Three organizations claim responsibility for operation

A Palestinian security official told Ynet that the terrorists who launched the attack Sunday morning arrived from Sinai and not from the Strip. According to the source, the fact that the attackers were armed and managed to enter the post without disruption testifies to the fact that they may have arrived from the Egyptian, not the Palestinian side.

Sources at the Popular Resistance Committees(PRC) claimed that organization members, along with gunmen from Hamas and a new organization called "Army of Islam," fired an anti-tank missile at an IDF post in the southern Strip and exchanged fire with the troops.

According to the PRC, "this is an operation of high quality, during which some of the people were parachuted close to the crossing."..

A source at the PRC defined the operation as "the ongoing illusion operation." According to the source, "the operation was aimed at making it clear that the Israeli security is an illusion. Israelis will have no security as long as the Palestinians have no security."

A spokesman for the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas' military wing, claimed that there were no Palestinian casualties in the operation. The spokesman, Abu Ubaidah, said that "all the fighters who took part in the operation returned to their bases alive." 

Sources at the PRC said that "the operation was a response to the assassination of the organization's leader, Jamal Abu Samhadana , who was killed by the IDF earlier this month, and a response to the killing of head of the group's military wing, Khalil al-Quqa , who was assassinated by the IDF about three months ago."...

Please read the full article - remember this is "just" the Israeli point of view.. (here you find also a video and three links to related articles):

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3266818,00.html#n

The so-called left-liberal Isrealy daily Haaretz wrote this:

Two soldiers killed, one kidnapped in raid on IDF post 
  
Two Israel Defense Forces soldiers were killed and another was kidnapped when Hamas and other armed Palestinian groups attacked an IDF post within Israeli territory near the Gaza Strip border, in the pre-dawn hours Sunday.

"IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz said Sunday afternoon that the kidnapped soldier was alive. "Hamas is involved in this matter from head to foot, literally," Halutz told a news conference.

The soldier is alive, and therefore they bear responsibility for his fate."
 
Shortly after the early morning attack, IDF tanks and troops entered Gaza near the site of the incident, an IDF position close to the Kerem Shalom crossing. Military sources said the incursion was part of a manhunt for the missing soldier.

The two soldiers were killed when an anti-tank missile was fired at the tank in which they were located. The missing soldier and another who was seriously wounded were also inside...

More here:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/730994.html

AP:

5 Dead After Militants Attack Israeli Post

Al Jazeera:

Israeli soldier missing after Gaza attack

And right now: IDF is striking back..

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압둘 사쿠르를 즉각 석방하라

'테러리스트' 딱지붙여 이주노동자

 활동 탄압하는 경찰 규탄대회

2006.6.25(日) 오후 2시 30분

탑골공원 앞 

1. 대회 명칭
  「압둘 사쿠르를 즉각 석방하라!」
   '테러리스트' 딱지붙여 이주노동자 활동 탄압하는 경찰 규탄대회

2. 주요요구
- 압둘 사쿠르를 즉각 석방하라!
- 이주노동자는 테러리스트가 아니다!
- 경찰청은 사과하라!
- 살인적인 단속추방 중단하라!
- 미등록이주노동자 전면합법화 하라!

3. 일시 : 2006.6.25(일) 오후 2시 30분

4. 장소 : 종로 탑골공원 앞 -> 행진 -> 명동성당 마무리

5. 주최 : 이주노동자 인권과 노동권 확보를 위한 시민사회단체 연대회의

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ANTI-WAR RALLIES/DEMOS

IN SEOUL

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Now, not even 24 hours after my last contribution about this issue, the US administration made it clear that they don't want even to think about bilateral talks with the DPRK(actually it was clear from the beginning that they will reject this kind of "offer"..). ``You don't initiate talks by threatening to launch an ICBM(inter-continantal ballistic missile),'' Bolton, the U.S. envoy to the U.N. said.

And finally some US ex-politicians are calling now for military strikes against DPRK's missile sites(please see the last two articles).

Just a short while ago AP reported following:

China Concerned Over N. Korea Missile Test

IHT/AP:

Japan makes moves to monitor North Korea

Washington Post published today following article:

Former Defense Officials Urge U.S. Strike on North Korean Missile Site

Former defense secretary William J. Perry has called on President Bush to launch a preemptive strike against the long-range ballistic missile that U.S. intelligence analysts say North Korea is preparing to launch.

In an opinion article(*) that appears in today's Washington Post, Perry and former assistant defense secretary Ashton B. Carter argue that if North Korea continues launch preparations, Bush should immediately declare that the United States will destroy the missile before it can be fired.

Perry and Carter suggest using a cruise missile launched from a submarine and carrying a high-explosive warhead. "The effect on the Taepodong would be devastating," they write, using the name of the Korean missile. "The multi-story, thin-skinned missile filled with high-energy fuel is itself explosive -- the U.S. airstrike would puncture the missile and probably cause it to explode. The carefully engineered test bed for North Korea's nascent nuclear missile force would be destroyed."

As President Bill Clinton's defense secretary, Perry oversaw preparation for airstrikes on North Korean nuclear facilities in 1994, an attack that was never carried out. He has remained deeply involved in Korean policy issues and is widely respected in national-security circles, especially among senior military officers. He has been a critic of the Bush administration's approach to North Korea.

"We believe diplomacy might have precluded the current situation," Perry and Carter said. "But diplomacy has failed, and we cannot sit by and let this deadly threat mature."

Perry and Carter say that such a strike "undoubtedly carries risk" but that there would be no damage to North Korea beyond the missile galley. They argue that the unproven U.S. missile-defense system might not be able to shoot down a missile.

Meanwhile, there were some signs that South Korea, where officials have expressed skepticism over U.S. intelligence regarding an imminent missile launch, might be willing to step up pressure on the North. Yesterday, Kim Dae Jung, the former South Korean president, postponed a much-lauded visit next week to the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, because of the rising tensions.

"Because of the unforeseen situation, it has become difficult" for Kim to visit North Korea, Jeong Se Hyun, a former top aide to Kim, told reporters.

In addition, South Korea's unification minister, Lee Jong-Seok, was widely quoted in the country's press as suggesting that continued investment and humanitarian aid to North Korea might be curbed if Pyongyang conducts a missile test. In a meeting with opposition leaders from South Korea's Grand National Party, which has criticized the administration of President Roh Moo Hyun for being soft on North Korea, Lee was quoted by the Korea Times as saying Seoul "will not pretend as if nothing has happened in the event of North Korea test-firing a missile."

Also yesterday, the U.S. ambassador to Japan reiterated that "all options are on the table" with regard to North Korea.

Asked whether the United States would attempt to shoot down the North Korean missile if launched, J. Thomas Schieffer warned in an interview that "we have greater technical means of tracking it than we had in the past, and we have options that we have not had in the past."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/21/AR2006062101838.html

* If Necessary, Strike and Destroy
North Korea Cannot Be Allowed to Test This Missile

By Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry

North Korean technicians are reportedly in the final stages of fueling a long-range ballistic missile that some experts estimate can deliver a deadly payload to the United States. The last time North Korea tested such a missile, in 1998, it sent a shock wave around the world, but especially to the United States and Japan, both of which North Korea regards as archenemies. They recognized immediately that a missile of this type makes no sense as a weapon unless it is intended for delivery of a nuclear warhead.

A year later North Korea agreed to a moratorium on further launches, which it upheld -- until now. But there is a critical difference between now and 1998. Today North Korea openly boasts of its nuclear deterrent, has obtained six to eight bombs' worth of plutonium since 2003 and is plunging ahead to make more in its Yongbyon reactor. The six-party talks aimed at containing North Korea's weapons of mass destruction have collapsed.

Should the United States allow a country openly hostile to it and armed with nuclear weapons to perfect an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering nuclear weapons to U.S. soil? We believe not. The Bush administration has unwisely ballyhooed the doctrine of "preemption," which all previous presidents have sustained as an option rather than a dogma. It has applied the doctrine to Iraq, where the intelligence pointed to a threat from weapons of mass destruction that was much smaller than the risk North Korea poses. (The actual threat from Saddam Hussein was, we now know, even smaller than believed at the time of the invasion.) But intervening before mortal threats to U.S. security can develop is surely a prudent policy.

Therefore, if North Korea persists in its launch preparations, the United States should immediately make clear its intention to strike and destroy the North Korean Taepodong missile before it can be launched. This could be accomplished, for example, by a cruise missile launched from a submarine carrying a high-explosive warhead. The blast would be similar to the one that killed terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq. But the effect on the Taepodong would be devastating. The multi-story, thin-skinned missile filled with high-energy fuel is itself explosive -- the U.S. airstrike would puncture the missile and probably cause it to explode. The carefully engineered test bed for North Korea's nascent nuclear missile force would be destroyed, and its attempt to retrogress to Cold War threats thwarted. There would be no damage to North Korea outside the immediate vicinity of the missile gantry.

The U.S. military has announced that it has placed some of the new missile defense interceptors deployed in Alaska and California on alert. In theory, the antiballistic missile system might succeed in smashing into the Taepodong payload as it hurtled through space after the missile booster burned out. But waiting until North Korea's ICBM is launched to interdict it is risky. First, by the time the payload was intercepted, North Korean engineers would already have obtained much of the precious flight test data they are seeking, which they could use to make a whole arsenal of missiles, hiding and protecting them from more U.S. strikes in the maze of tunnels they have dug throughout their mountainous country. Second, the U.S. defensive interceptor could reach the target only if it was flying on a test trajectory that took it into the range of the U.S. defense. Third, the U.S. system is unproven against North Korean missiles and has had an uneven record in its flight tests. A failed attempt at interception could undermine whatever deterrent value our missile defense may have.

We should not conceal our determination to strike the Taepodong if North Korea refuses to drain the fuel out and take it back to the warehouse. When they learn of it, our South Korean allies will surely not support this ultimatum -- indeed they will vigorously oppose it. The United States should accordingly make clear to the North that the South will play no role in the attack, which can be carried out entirely with U.S. forces and without use of South Korean territory. South Korea has worked hard to counter North Korea's 50-year menacing of its own country, through both military defense and negotiations, and the United States has stood with the South throughout. South Koreans should understand that U.S. territory is now also being threatened, and we must respond. Japan is likely to welcome the action but will also not lend open support or assistance. China and Russia will be shocked that North Korea's recklessness and the failure of the six-party talks have brought things to such a pass, but they will not defend North Korea.

In addition to warning our allies and partners of our determination to take out the Taepodong before it can be launched, we should warn the North Koreans. There is nothing they could do with such warning to defend the bulky, vulnerable missile on its launch pad, but they could evacuate personnel who might otherwise be harmed. The United States should emphasize that the strike, if mounted, would not be an attack on the entire country, or even its military, but only on the missile that North Korea pledged not to launch -- one designed to carry nuclear weapons. We should sharply warn North Korea against further escalation.

North Korea could respond to U.S. resolve by taking the drastic step of threatening all-out war on the Korean Peninsula. But it is unlikely to act on that threat. Why attack South Korea, which has been working to improve North-South relations (sometimes at odds with the United States) and which was openly opposing the U.S. action? An invasion of South Korea would bring about the certain end of Kim Jong Il's regime within a few bloody weeks of war, as surely he knows. Though war is unlikely, it would be prudent for the United States to enhance deterrence by introducing U.S. air and naval forces into the region at the same time it made its threat to strike the Taepodong. If North Korea opted for such a suicidal course, these extra forces would make its defeat swifter and less costly in lives -- American, South Korean and North Korean.

This is a hard measure for President Bush to take. It undoubtedly carries risk. But the risk of continuing inaction in the face of North Korea's race to threaten this country would be greater. Creative diplomacy might have avoided the need to choose between these two unattractive alternatives. Indeed, in earlier years the two of us were directly involved in negotiations with North Korea, coupled with military planning, to prevent just such an outcome. We believe diplomacy might have precluded the current situation. But diplomacy has failed, and we cannot sit by and let this deadly threat mature. A successful Taepodong launch, unopposed by the United States, its intended victim, would only embolden North Korea even further. The result would be more nuclear warheads atop more and more missiles.

Ashton B. Carter was assistant secretary of defense under President Bill Clinton and William J. Perry was secretary of defense. The writers, who conducted the North Korea policy review while in government, are now professors at Harvard and Stanford, respectively.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/21/AR2006062101518.html