CINA

본문

조선민주주의인민공화국

NORTH KOREA

"PARADISE OF THE

WORKING CLASS"..

(*)

..but, if we want to believe following articles, perhaps not longer anymore.

‘Coup Possible in Pyongyang’ (K. Times, 10.23)
 
 
A ``Beijing-friendly palace coup’’ may happen in North Korea to drive out the North’s ``dear leader’’ Kim Jong-il, a U.S. weekly magazine reported in its latest issue.
 

Chinese officials used to ``scoff’’ at the idea of effecting Chinese-style regime change in the Stalinist state, but an ``unprecedented debate’’ has taken place over Beijing’s North Korea policies, Newsweek said in its Oct. 30 issue.
 

Mentioning the stoppage of financial transfers and food exports to North Korea, the magazine backed the possibility of a coup.
 

Four major Chinese banks halted financial transfers to North Korea last Friday, and China decreased food exports to the isolated regime by two-thirds, the weekly said.
 

``Among some close advisers to the government, the idea of a Beijing-friendly palace coup has gained new currency,’’ the report said. ``China certainly has the means.’’

The means is the 11,000 barrels of oil China offers the reclusive state every day _ accounting for over 70 percent of Pyongyang’s total energy supply, the magazine said.
 

Chinese officials have said that they want Pyongyang to return to the six-party talks on its nuclear disarmament, but some scholars, angry at Kim’s recalcitrance, are asking for the government to pull the oil plug instead, the report said.
 

A former U.S. Pentagon official and Korea watcher said in an interview with Newsweek that the likely pool of moderate North Koreans who could succeed Kim includes Sinophile military officers and technocrats. ``They have come to believe that Chinese-style economic reforms will help transform North Korea,’’ he said.
 

As for post-Kim Jong-il scenarios, the report said, ``China would prefer North Korea to maintain a friendly, ideally socialist, buffer state on its periphery, which could keep U.S. soldiers based in South Korea at arm’s length.’’

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200610/kt2006102317384311990.htm

Here's what K. Times quoted:

China's Reaction: Tightening the Screws
Would Beijing dump Kim? It's certainly not likely, but ...

(Newsweek)

Once upon a time Beijing officials and scholars would have scoffed at the idea of effecting Chinese-style regime change in Pyongyang. But in the wake of Kim's nuke test, an unprecedented debate has broken out over Beijing's North Korea policies. Last Friday four major Chinese banks stopped making financial transfers to North Korea—a tactic that could quickly pinch a weak economy that relies on China as a link to the international financial system. And this year China has reduced food exports to Pyongyang by two thirds. "I've never seen the Chinese leadership so resolved to be tougher towards North Korea," says Zhu Feng, head of Peking University's international-security program.

Among some close advisers to the government, the idea of a Beijing-friendly palace coup has gained new currency. China certainly has the means: it provides 11,000 barrels of oil to North Korea every day, accounting for more than 70 percent of Pyongyang's total energy supply. Beijing stopped oil deliveries for three days in early 2003 to pressure Pyongyang to join the Six-Party Talks. (Later Chinese apparatchiks insisted there had been a mechanical malfunction.) Chinese authorities insist they want Kim to return to the talks again, but some scholars, furious at Kim's recalcitrance, are calling on their government to pull the oil plug instead. "Chinese diplomacy has been a failure," says Prof. Zhang Liangui, a foreign-policy analyst at the influential Central Party School. "To not stop oil [deliveries] would be baffling from a moral point of view."

According to a former U.S. Pentagon official and Korea watcher, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic, the likely pool of moderate North Koreans who could succeed Kim includes Sinophile military officers and technocrats who have come to believe that Chinese-style economic reforms will help transform North Korea. The presence in China of high-level defectors, including military officers, has sparked rumors of a Beijing supported "Chrysanthemum group" who could be the backbone of a new regime, the source says, though "the Chinese never talk about it." South Korean experts on the North recall similar, albeit "theoretical" talk of a Chinese shadow cabinet in 2003-2004.

A successful coup, while farfetched, would ease Beijing's fears of anarchy and a flood of refugees on its border. But the crucial question is how the interests of China diverge from the United States' and South Korea's when it comes to post-Kim scenarios. Beijing would prefer to maintain a friendly, ideally socialist, buffer state on its periphery, which could keep U.S. soldiers based in South Korea at arm's length. Seoul isn't seeking instant reunification with the North, either—too expensive—but South Korean strategists may want to move troops into the North to prevent its being absorbed by China. Replacing Kim might not be any easier than dealing with him now.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15365945/site/newsweek/

*****

First of all these kind of theoretic considerations are not really new. Since several years some political analysts are debating this kind of possible future for the DPRK.

But in my opinion this will not be practicable, not really.

Why?

A DPRK with "Chinese-style economic reforms" will become very soon a capitalist (at least economical) society. China(PRC), even the ruling party is a "communist" party, is a capitalist society. And nothing different North Korea will be.

But there is a big difference between the PRC and NK. There is only one China(just forget in the moment Taiwan). The PRC, even in the late 1970s, even after years of Culture Revolution, was a huge, powerful country with a lot of own natural resources.

On the other side the PRC had, even in the time of the Great Leap and the Culture Rev., strong relationships to the oversea Chinese community(S.E. Asia, USA..). And especially from this community the first investments("hard" currency, know-how..) in the new econimic reforms in the late 1970s were coming. But this investors had only economic intentions, no politically.

For a NK with "Chinese-style economic reforms" the most potentially investors will come from S. Korea. But in this process - of course the country MUST/WILL open its borders(i.e. also the entire society) to the outside world, especially to the South -
the southern "brothers and sisters" will try to influence NK also politically.

Finally, like in the case of Germany in 1989/90, after the collapse of the East German ruling system(the so-called "Material Existing Socialsm"), there will be no necessity for two capitalist Korean states!!

BTW: According to many political analysts/experts(and so on..) for the PRC the main obstacle for a - of course - peaceful re-unification of the Koreas is the presence of USFK on the peninsula (because they worry that after the unification this shit, i.e. USFK, will be moved to the Yalujiang/Amnok-gang).

As I know, nearly everyone in SK wants the unification.. So the first thing to prepare for the re-unification should be the struggle against the presence of USFK in SK. JUST KICK THEM OUT! NOW(ahe~ or at least tomorrow)!!

* according to the NK propaganda^^