CINA

A. Lankov has penned a very interesting piece in the Asia Times (2.21) on a possible Chinese intervention in N.K. and what it means for everyone involved. It’s a long piece, but well worth the read. Here’s just a snippet:

These days everybody who thinks about the fate of North Korean has to consider the Chinese takeover as a possibility to be taken seriously. In most cases it is seen as a disaster, but is it really that bad?

One should not welcome such a turn of events, of course. However, Chinese intervention, while not being the best available solution, might still open ways for hope - at least in comparison with the present-day gloomy and explosive situation. To start with, the world probably will be unable and/or willing to do much anyway. If a pro-Chinese coup is staged in Pyongyang, the world will face a fait accompli, so all protests will be useless (and easily deniable).

If a chaos erupts in North Korea, the outside world might indeed welcome (and even actively encourage) Chinese involvement. North Korea probably has five to 10 crude nuclear devices, plus a large stockpile of weapons-grade plutonium and a substantial amount of chemical weapons. Internal chaos might produce a refugee crisis on a scale East Asia has not seen since the 1940s. Both are good reasons why dangerous chaos would have be stopped, by force if necessary, but neither US nor South Korea seem well-prepared for this task.

To read the full article, please check out:

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