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..Paranoia and Provocation (Guardian, UK, 9.14)

North Korea's political paranoia spilled into the open this week when the isolated regime accused the Bush administration of plotting a nuclear strike. The state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper said a "sub-critical" underground nuclear test in Nevada last month was part of Washington's efforts to develop new, offensive atomic weapons. "The US is perfecting a nuclear war plan after listing our and other countries as targets for its pre-emptive nuclear attack," it said.

An US assault is not remotely on the cards, but North Korea's clamour reflects more than its leadership's persecution complex. In Seoul the claim was read as possible evidence that the North is preparing to justify an imminent nuclear weapons test of its own. South Korean officials have warned that Pyongyang could conduct a test, or repeat July's destabilising Sea of Japan missile launches, at any time. Not coincidentally, President Roh Moo-hyun was in Washingtonon Thursday arguing for a more "flexible" US line.

Concern about North Korea's intentions is ratcheting up again across the region. Pyongyang escaped binding sanctions proposed by Japan after the July launches when China diluted a condemnatory UN resolution. But it failed in its apparent aim of scaring the US into relaxing financial sanctions or offering improved, Iran-style incentives for good behaviour. Now analysts suggest it may be about to try again.

The US says it would view a North Korean nuclear test as "very provocative" while the reaction in Japan, the only country to experience atom bomb attacks, could be explosive. But with the six-party nuclear talks deadlocked for almost a year, and differences in approach evident between the US, South Korea, Japan and China, foolproof mechanisms for avoiding another dangerous confrontation appear lacking.

"The key has got be some kind of bilateral deal between North Korea and the US that everyone else can buy into," said Christopher Hughes, a regional expert based at the University of Warwick. "An agreement with the US is what the North Koreans have always wanted. The US is searching for a way to reach them while stopping Japan over-playing its hand."

But Machiavellian manoeuvring by Pyongyang, diplomatic divergences and distrust continue to bedevil such efforts. When Christopher Hill, the US chief negotiator, proposed a one-on-one meeting with his North Korean counterpart last week, he was reportedly rebuffed. Kim Jong-il, North Korea's leader, is meanwhile rumoured to be on the point of visiting China for consultations.

Japanese officials play down the prospect of a crisis while admitting that "favourable signs" from North Korea are lacking. "We do not have any evidence of activities suggesting that something is going to happen soon, either concerning missiles or a nuclear test," a senior diplomat said. "But it is very difficult to predict, especially when it comes to underground testing."

The likely appointment this month of a hard-hitting conservative, Shinzo Abe, to replace Junichiro Koizumi as Japan's prime minister would not change Tokyo's approach, the diplomat said. "We will maintain our current policy of dialogue and pressure. We want talks to resume. We also want full implementation of UN resolution 1695 (that requires countries to halt WMD or missile-related technology transfers to North Korea)."

Reports yesterday suggested Japan may impose financial sanctions later this month, which North Korea says would be tantamount to a declaration of war. Sources said the US could also adopt additional punitive measures if no progress is made.

Describing Mr Abe as a "neo-nationalist, more hawkish than Mr Koizumi", Dr Hughes predicted a tougher Japanese line on nuclear weapons and on the long-running dispute over Japanese abducted by North Korea. "Abe portrays himself as a leading statesman. He believes in reviving the Japanese nation. He wants to rewrite the constitution and the post-war settlement." Speaking yesterday, Mr Abe called for a more "assertive" international role for Japan.

But after fierce Sino-Japanese frictions during the Koizumi era, Mr Abe would also face considerable pressure, not least from Washington, to improve relations with China, Dr Hughes said. So partly to maintain his credibility with the nationalist right "he will probably still be tempted to bash North Korea quite hard". And that could be seen as provocation by the paranoiacs of Pyongyang.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/korea/article/0,,1872341,00.html

PS:

Yesterday's DailyNK [well, I know, f.. reactionary.. But dont't forget: "If you want to fight your enemy you must study him/her"(Lenin)^^] wrote following stuff:

The U.S. Intensifies Sanction against NK through UN Resolution
'By deepening, rather than broadening, existing measures' 

The United States is expected to tighten its North Korean policy by strengthening financial sanction and containment through the UN resolution 1695, within the boundary of six-party talks.

Such expectation is materialized as the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill visits Northeast Asia, recently. Hill, during a press conference in Seoul, said that North Korea did not pursue fulfillment of the 9.19 communiqué, and added “every member state of the UN must follow the Security Council’s resolution and we will watch it.”
 

Hill is known as the leading advocate of negotiation with North Korea in the U.S. In his recent trip to East Asia, Hill might have met with Kim Kye Kwan, Vice Minister of NK Foreign Ministry. But Pyongyang did not respond to Hill’s call and the U.S. seemed to conclude that NK lacked will to follow the 9.19 communiqué, in which NK promised to give its nuclear program. The six-party talks have become a lame excuse of Pyongyang’s procrastination.
 

The U.S. Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson’s plan to meet South Korea President Roh Moo Hyun, during Roh’s official visit to the U.S. this week, is also worthy of notice. Paulson is responsible to financial sanction against North Korea. The meeting’s main topic will not be anything but financial sanction.

However, it is not known yet whether Washington would ask for South Korea’s more vigorous participation in sanction, or Seoul will request appeasement policy to attract NK to return to the six-party talks. Nonetheless, since the gap between the two countries’ perspective, the summit will not have a more than symbolic meaning.

Therefore, it has become evermore probable that the U.S. would announce a wholesale sanction against NK after Hill’s East Asian tour and the U.S.-South Korean summit on Thursday. Given the perspective, the U.S. might hope to create another multi-lateral international structure to deal with security concerns of East Asia.
 

It might be problematic to press North Korea without participation of Seoul and Beijing. Moreover, U.S. is currently dealing with Iran’s nuclear program, too. So a joint solution that is applicable to nuclear development of both Iran and North Korea could be suggested.
 

Tom Casey, deputy spokesperson of the Department of State, announced on Tuesday that every necessary means will be exercised to terminate North Korea’s nuclear weapon or other WMD development program.
Professor Kim Tae Ho, a South Korean expert on NK, anticipated deepening rather than broadening of existing sanction policies against the North.

According to Professor Kim, it is possible to conduct intensive financial sanction world wide or inspection of North Korean ships on the sea through PSI, Proliferation Security Initiative. “South Korean government’s aid to North Korea,” Kim added, “would be in trouble as sanctions get intensified.”

An anonymous international politics professior commented that “there is no need for special measure to put pressure on North Korea right now, but if NK does not give up the nuclear program, coercion will get hardened.”

The professor supposed that Bush administration would not yield to North Korea’s persistence, since both countries’ fundamental interests are at stake.

http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk00100&num=1098

Wow, exactly 6 years ago(I already forgot it in the last years) I visited the first time the Korean Peninsula. At that time: Pyeongyang/DPRK, during the "Int'l Film Festival of Non-aligned and Other Developing Countries"^^!!

Harrharr, just now I found out that this night there will be a documentary about NK in the TV..

"P.Y. Robogirl"^^