CINA

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VICTORY!! ...but for whom??

8.08 in the morning(CET) the Israeli online news magazine ynet reported, related to the Lebanese cease fire proposal, following: "At the press conference... Olmert stated that there were some 'interesting points' in the Lebanese prime minister's proposal for a ceasefire, and added he knew full well Hizbullah was interested in a cessation of the fighting, mainly because the group was no longer able to continue its resistance to the Israeli army.

And only few hours the Israeli news agencies were forced to report that again IDF soldiers were killed and injured in "fierce clashes with Hizbullah units" in south Lebanon.

Since noon Israel's northern villages and towns were/are once again under massive attacks by Hizbullah's Katyusha rockets.

And a short while ago(pm 7:30, CET) this was written by Israeli media:

Minister Ezra: Hizbullah is breaking down (^^)

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3288371,00.html

Also yesterday the Israeli rightwing daily Jerusalem Post published following:

Analysis: Hizbullah still strong

Operation Change of Direction was launched last month with the declared goal of weakening Hizbullah to the point where it would be possible to create a new political reality in south Lebanon. On Monday, almost four weeks into the fighting, a high-ranking Military Intelligence officer said the IDF was still far from reaching its goal.

While Israel waited for a United Nations Security Council resolution on a cease-fire, not now expected to come up for a vote until at least Thursday, the next stage will be a second resolution - one that calls for the deployment of a multinational force to replace the IDF in southern Lebanon and to prevent Hizbullah from reestablishing itself there.

Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz, have spoken with enthusiasm about a multinational force, but the high-ranking officer said Monday that Hizbullah had not been damaged enough and still retained enough "diplomatic power" to thwart the deployment of such a force.

"Hizbullah has not been sufficiently weakened," the officer said. "And there may be no choice but to expand the ground operation in the direction of the Litani River to achieve that goal."

According to intelligence information, the Hizbullah command-and-control array is still functioning even after nearly four weeks of fighting. So are the logistical command centers - still operating and succeeding in directing the smuggling of weapons into Lebanon from Syria.

The officer said that Hizbullah still had the ability to fire short-range rockets, of which the guerrilla group has already fired 2,500 since the beginning of the war.

The only way to stop the short-range rockets, he said, was for the IDF to deepen its incursion north to the Litani and to sweep through cities like Tyre, estimated to be the hiding place for most of the short-range 122mm Katyusha rockets.

But despite the concern that the Hizbullah could succeed in thwarting a diplomatic effort to deploy an international force in Lebanon, the IDF can still pat itself on the back. Over 400 guerrillas have been killed in IDF operations, most of the long-range rocket arrays have been destroyed and the organization's stronghold in Beirut - Dahiya - has been almost completely demolished in IAF air strikes.

Senior IDF officers said Monday that they needed more time to continue striking at the guerrilla group to really weaken Hizbullah. The big question now is whether Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will give the green light for an IDF incursion up to the Litani, a move that could save Israel face and provide it with the the victory it has been seeking since the outset of a conflict that has proven to be far more difficult than initially expected.

At the moment, the IDF is holding onto positions in a security zone eight kilometers deep into Lebanon and is waiting to see if it will be ordered to push northwards to the Litani. Senior officials in the Northern Command said Monday that the chances the the IDF would reach that far in the coming days were slim, since with fighting still going on in villages like Bint Jbail - where three soldiers were killed Monday - within the IDF-created security zone, the military could not move on.

"We need to first finish clearing out the security zone and only then can we move north," a high-ranking officer in the Northern Command explained.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525826349&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

*****

The German daily die tageszeitung wrote yesterday(8.08) that, according to the Near East Consulting Institute, the predominant majority of the Palestinians in Gaza and the W. Bank are supporting the "struggle of Hizbullah against Israel" - 97 percent of the entire population. And even 95 percent of the Christian minority are supporting Hizbullah, so the German daily.

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Nepal peace talks close to collapse, rebel chief warns (Guardian, 8.08)

 
The peace process in the Himalayan state of Nepal between Maoist guerrillas and Nepalese politicians is on the verge of collapse over the future of the monarchy and disarmament, a senior communist leader said yesterday.

The comments, by deputy rebel chief Baburam Bhattarai, were the first signs of a split in the alliance between the seven political parties and the Maoists that effectively removed the king from power in April. "The talks are very close to collapse," Mr Bhattarai told business leaders in Kathmandu. "The dialogue process is stuck at a very sensitive stage. The government is trying to force us to war again."

More than 13,000 have been killed during a decade of Maoist revolt, but the rebel leader ruled out an immediate return to battle, saying that if the talks failed the Maoists would "launch a new peaceful, popular movement in the cities, and not go back to the jungles".
Despite previous Maoist statements that they would accept a ceremonial monarchy if the people wanted one, Mr Bhattarai criticised the interim prime minister's recent statement in favour of a ceremonial monarchy. "We caution and warn the prime minister that we may have to leave him if he continues to protect the monarchy - and that protest will not only finish the king, it will also finish all those who are siding with the monarchy," Mr Bhattarai said.

The Maoists and the government agreed a ceasefire in May after Nepal's King Gyanendra was forced from power by weeks of street protests. He ceded power to a multi-party administration that does not include any rebel members. Since then, the two sides have been inching towards an agreement for a future elected constituent assembly that could write a new constitution for the country.

The negotiations appear to have stalled because the Maoists are unwilling to give up their guns unless the Nepalese army is disarmed. The UN had proposed that armouries could be built in barracks for the rebels where weapons could be kept under two sets of locks. One set of keys would be held by the Maoists, the other by the UN. However, the Maoists would not accept the plan unless the country's military was similarly constrained.

"What was being proposed was dissolving the [Maoist] People's Liberation army. It is not acceptable to us," Maoist chief negotiator, Krishna Bahadur Mahara told the Guardian. "We are not for the status quo. How can we accept demilitarisation only for us, and not for them?"

Analysts say that the Maoists were attempting to strengthen their hand in the negotiations by talking tough. "The international community has been quite firm. India, the US, the EU have all told the Maoists they cannot join the interim government with guns in hand," said Kanak Mani Dixit of Himal magazine.

"What they need is a face-saving measure (for the Maoists), because Nepal does not want to return to war."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1839248,00.html

Dr Bhattarai warns of another struggle if peace talks breached (eKantipur, 8.06)

Maoist leader Dr Baburam Bhattarai said on Monday that Prime Minister Girija P Koirala's comments a day earlier on giving space to the king would hamper the ongoing peace talks.

 
Dr Bhattarai made the comments at a programme organised by Nepal's commerce and industrial fraternity in the capital on the occasion of the 40th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI).

Prime Minister Koirala had, on Sunday, made his opinion public regarding the monarch saying that even he should be given some room in a democracy.

Warning of a third people's movement in the country, Dr Bhattarai said that if the government and the parties kept on “humming the same monotonous tune” calling for the Maoists to lay down their weapons without even trying to enter the preliminary stages of peace talks, then it would be inevitable for the peace process to take a backseat.

"All of you present here (industrialists and businessmen) have wished for a lasting peace in the country. My statements don't mean that if the peace talks don't succeed, the country would again head towards war. You don't need to have any confusion about that," he explained adding, "Our chairman Prachanda too has pledged time and again that we would not go back to the jungle again. Even if we have to carry on our struggle, we will do that here in the capital and cities. We will struggle peacefully."

Maoist supremo Prachanda was earlier scheduled to address the second and concluding day of the FNCCI's AGM but instead the number two in the Maoists' chain-of-command, Dr Baburam Bhattarai addressed the meeting.

Dr Bhattarai said, "If they (government and the parties) breach the peace talks, if they stick to the old notion of preserving the "royal army" and the king, we will detach ourselves from the peace talks and continue our struggle right here in the city but peacefully."

Warning of another “big” movement if things didn’t go as per the agreements, Dr Bhattarai said, "We will form another "front" -- "republican front" -- comprising the people of Nepal that would bring another enormous change which would not only sweep monarchy but also all forces who support monarchy."

Reiterating that there would not be another conflict again, he also made clear that it should not spread the message that the Maoists have lost their will and power. "We are not tired, we have not lost," said Bhattarai adding, "The people of Nepal (from rural areas) have already made sacrifices for the betterment of the country. Now it's your turn (people from urban and city areas, including the capital) to show the same spirit to bring a massive and positive change in the country."

http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnews.php?&nid=82036