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God, Gays & Guns

누가 부시(G. Bush)를 다시 대통령으로 만들었을까? 선거인단 수로는 286대 252, 전국 득표율로 하면 51%대 48%. 프로리다와 오하이오에서 물먹은 케리는 차기 재출마 운운하며 꿈에서 못깨어 나고 계속 뒷발차기를 해대고 있습니다. 하지만 불편한 사실은 다음에도 그리고 그 다음에도 민주당원으로 대통령 되기가 쉽지 않아 보인다는 것입니다.

 

존 케리(John Kerry)는 이번에 민주당 대통령 후보지명 선거에 출마했던 당원들 가운데 민주당의 코드에 가장 근접한 사람이었습니다. 소위 민주당의 당심(!)에 가장 적절한 인물이었던 것입니다. 아이오와 코커스가 있기 바로 전날까지 뜬 인물은 버몬트 주의 지사출신 하워드 딘(Howard Dean)이었습니다. 하지만 그는 대중선동을 위한 미끼에 불과했습니다. 민주당은 딘의 입을 빌어 쉽게 건드리기 어려웠던 이라크 전쟁의 문제를 비판적으로 공론화 했습니다. 딘은 '(당선)가능성(!)' 있는 대중정치인들 가운데 이라크 전쟁에 대해 가장 비판적인 입장을 가지고 있었습니다. 반전철군을 공개적으로 주장했습니다. 그의 스피치에 힘입어 민주당은 이라크 전쟁에 대한 '미적미적주의'로 부터 벗어날수 있었습니다. 하지만 딘은 민주당 내부의 관리코드(당심!)와는 거리가 있는 인물이었습니다. 젊은이들과 마이너리티의 지지는 그야말로 마이너 한 것이었습니다. 후보 선출을 위해 제일 중요했던 아이오와 코커스 다음날 그는 다혈질의 불안한 인물이 되어 있었습니다. 하지만, 아이오와에서 패배한 것은 하워드 딘이 아니고 민주당이었습니다. 이러한 민주당의 패배는 수년 혹은 수십년을 지속할 수 도 있다는 것이 앞서 말씀드렸다시피 지금의 제 육감입니다. '진보(미국적 진보)의 정치강령들'을 '안정적이고 고급스러워 보이는 이미지'로 코드화 하려는 민주당의 전략으로는 결코 50%를 넘을 수 없습니다. 영원히 48%가 되는 거죠.

 

이번 선거에서 공화당은 '종교'와 '도덕(모랄)'을 중요한 이데올로기로 동원했습니다. 출구조사 발표에 따르면, 일반의 예측과는 달리 경제정책에 더해 부쉬의 우위가 예상되었던 이라크 문제의 해결 방식에 있어서도 케리가 높은 지지를 받은 반면, '모랄리티'의 문제에 대해서는 부시가 압도적이었습니다. '무엇이 이번 선거의 최대 쟁점이라고 생각하는가'를 묻는 질문에 대해서도 '도덕 문제(모랄리티 문제)'라고 답한 사람이 가장 많았다는 사실이 저를 포함해 여러사람을 놀라게 했습니다만 이는 공화당의 선거전략이 민주당을 압도했다고 하는 중요한 증거입니다. 이러한 전략구성의 핵심이 위의 카툰(뉴욕타임즈)에 나오는 칼 로브(Karl Rove)라는 사람인데 그는 이미 7살에 열성 공화당원이 되었다고 합니다.

아울러 그 모랄리티와 관련해 이번 선거의 결과에 결정적이었던 이슈가 '3G'였다고 하는 통찰은 매우 흥미롭습니다. 그 3G는 GOD, GAYS 그리고 GUNS입니다. 요컨대, 부쉬진영은 광신적복음전도주의 그룹인 에반젤리스트(evangelist)를 동원해 케리진영을 '리버럴'로 몰아세우며 '동성결혼의 용인'과, '총포류의 보유제한' 그리고 '낙태의 허용'을 극렬 반대하도록 하는 한편, 이를 슬로건으로 보수층을 결집시키는데 사력을 다했습니다. 아울러 부쉬는 '리버럴'을 '부도덕'과 동의어로 만드는 '미국적 색깔론'을 동원해 공화당 지지파가 아닌 '민주당 반대파'들을 자신의 표로 조직하는 전략을 구사했습니다. 결과는 성공이었습니다.

정기적으로 교회에 다니는 사람의 64%, 총기보유자의 63%, 낙태에 반대하는 사람의 77%가 부쉬를 지지했습니다. 케리를 지지한 중요한 카테고리는 대도시거주자(60%), 학사이상 학력소지자(55%) 그리고 독신자(58%)들 이었습니다. 요컨대, 저는 이번 미국의 대통령 선거를 종교적원리주의에 기반한 부쉬적 '신보수주의(네오콘)'의 승리였다고 정의합니다.

 

이글을 쓰면서 미국의 정치과정에 개입할 수 있는 선거권 혹은 피선거권도 없는 사람들이 미국의 선거결과에 촉각을 세워 긴장해야 하는 현실에 매우 비통함을 느끼고 있습니다.

 

sabotage, tokyo



Two Nations Under God / Thomas L. Friedman

New York Times, November 4th, 2004

Well, as Grandma used to say, at least I still have my health...
I often begin writing columns by interviewing myself. I did that Wednesday, asking myself this: Why didn’t I feel totally depressed after George H W Bush defeated Michael Dukakis, or even when George W Bush defeated Al Gore? Why did I wake up feeling deeply troubled?

Answer: Whatever differences I felt with the elder Bush were over what was the right policy. There was much he ultimately did that I ended up admiring. And when George W Bush was elected four years ago on a platform of compassionate conservatism, after running from the middle, I assumed the same would be true with him. (Wrong.) But what troubled me Wednesday was my feeling that this election was tipped because of an outpouring of support for George Bush by people who don’t just favour different policies from me—they favour a whole different kind of America from me. We don’t just disagree on what America should be doing; we disagree on what America is.

Is it a country that does not intrude into people’s sexual preferences? Is it a country that allows a woman to have control over her body? Is it a country where the line between Church and state bequeathed to us by our Founding Fathers should be inviolate? Is it a country where religion doesn’t trump science? And, most important, is it a country whose president mobilises its deep moral energies to unite us—instead of dividing us from one another and from the world?

At one level this election was about nothing. None of the real problems facing the nation was really discussed. But at another level, without warning, it actually became about everything. Partly it was because so many Supreme Court seats are at stake, and partly it was because Bush’s base is pushing so hard to legislate social issues and extend the boundaries of religion that it felt as if we were rewriting the Constitution, not electing a president. I felt as if I registered to vote, but when I showed up, the Constitutional Convention broke out.

The election results reaffirmed that. Despite an utterly incompetent war performance in Iraq and a stagnant economy, Bush held onto the same basic core of states that he won four years ago—as if nothing had happened. It seemed as if people were not voting on his performance. It seemed as if they were voting for what team they were on.

This was not an election. This was station identification. I’d bet anything that if the election ballots hadn’t had the names Bush and Kerry on them but simply asked instead, ‘‘Do you watch Fox TV or read The New York Times?’’, the Electoral College would have broken the exact same way.

My problem with the Christian fundamentalists supporting Bush is not their spiritual energy or the fact that I am of a different faith. It is the way in which he and they have used that religious energy to promote divisions and intolerance at home and abroad. ‘‘The Democrats have ceded to Republicans a monopoly on the moral and spiritual sources of American politics,’’ noted the Harvard University political theorist Michael J Sandel. ‘‘They will not recover as a party until they again have candidates who can speak to those moral and spiritual yearnings—but turn them to progressive purposes.’’

I’ve always had a motto when it comes to politics: Never put yourself in a position where your party wins only if your country fails. This column will absolutely not be rooting for Bush to fail so Democrats can make a comeback. If the Democrats make a comeback, it must not be by default, because the country has lapsed into a total mess, but because they have nominated a candidate who can win with a positive message that connects with America’s heartland.

Meanwhile, there is a lot of talk that Bush has a mandate for his far right policies. Yes, he does have a mandate, but he also has a date—a date with history. If Bush can salvage the war in Iraq, forge a solution for dealing with our entitlements crisis—which can be done only with a bipartisan approach and a more sane fiscal policy—upgrade America’s competitiveness, prevent Iran from going nuclear, and produce a solution for our energy crunch, history will say that he used his mandate to lead to great effect. If he pushes for still more tax cuts and fails to solve our real problems, his date with history will be a very unpleasant one—no matter what mandate he has.

 

 

'Moral Values' Carried Bush, Rove Says / By ADAM NAGOURNEY

New York Times, November 10th, 2004

 

WASHINGTON, Nov. 9 - President Bush's chief political adviser, Karl Rove, said Tuesday that opposition to gay marriage was one of the most powerful forces in American politics today and that politicians ignored it at their peril.

"This is an issue on which there is a broad consensus," Mr. Rove said, discussing a presidential election that took place as voters in 11 states backed constitutional amendments barring same-sex marriages.

"In all 11 states, it won by considerable margins," Mr. Rove said, adding, "People do not like the idea or the concept of marriage as being a union between a man and a woman being uprooted and overturned by a few activist judges or a couple of activist local officials."

He said he was not certain that the votes necessarily helped Mr. Bush to defeat Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. He noted that Mr. Kerry had won Michigan and Oregon, where the amendments passed by large margins.

"I do think it was part and parcel of a broader fabric where this year moral values ranked higher than they traditionally do," he said, adding: "I think people would be well advised to pay attention to what the American people are saying."

Mr. Rove suggested that the Republican Party's success was even broader than some Democrats had acknowledged, citing increased Republican vote totals in states like Hawaii and Connecticut.

"You're starting to see some growth of the Republican Party in places where you might not think there was a chance for growth," he said.

Mr. Rove appeared to stifle a grin when asked whether he was "indebted" to Mayor Gavin Newsom of San Francisco, who opened his City Hall to gay marriages until he was blocked by a court, and to the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts, for ruling that gay couples have a right to marriage.

"If you look at things that intrude into American politics through a nontraditional method - through a judicial vein - they tend to have a huge impact," he said.

On Capitol Hill, Mr. Kerry met with Democratic leaders - Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the House minority leader, and Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the incoming Senate minority leader - as he prepared to return to the Senate.


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